CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 7:06 AM EDT
241
FXUS61 KCLE 281106
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
706 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through Sunday
before departing to the east on Monday. A cold front will move
east across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night with high
pressure building in behind it on Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper-level low centered over western Kentucky will influence
the local weather through the near term period as it ever so
slightly drifts eastward. Expansive moisture swirling around
this upper-low will result in overcast conditions with periods
of light rain through the near term period. Total QPF of around
0.25" is expected areawide though might see locally higher
amounts of up to 0.5" towards central Ohio (e.g. south of
US-30). Temperatures remain near normal to slightly above normal
with highs in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Net troughing at the surface and aloft affects our CWA through
Tuesday night. The vertically-stacked and remnant low of Helene is
expected to wobble ENE'ward from near the Middle OH Valley toward
the Upper OH Valley through Monday and then devolve into a trough at
the surface and aloft Monday night as the disturbance moves farther
E'ward toward the Mid-Atlantic region and vicinity. During Monday
night through Tuesday night, a warm front is expected to sweep
N'ward through our CWA and be followed quite quickly by the SE'ward
passage of a strong cold front. A potent shortwave trough aloft
approaches from the north-central U.S. Monday night through Tuesday
before traversing the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley generally
from west to east Tuesday night. Moist isentropic ascent aloft,
associated with the cyclonic circulation of Helene's remnant low and
along the upper-reaches of the warm front, will allow periodic rain
showers to impact our region Sunday night through Tuesday. This
moist isentropic ascent may release sufficient, albeit weak elevated
CAPE to generate a few thunderstorms Sunday evening. Low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the cold front will generate
additional scattered rain showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. Behind
the cold front, a sufficiently-moist NW'erly to N'erly mean low-
level flow associated with strong CAA and accompanied by 850 mb
temperatures dropping to near 4C to 6C over ~22C Lake Erie will
allow scattered lake-effect rain showers to occur over and generally
southeast and south of the lake overnight Tuesday night.
Overnight lows are expected to reach mainly the mid 50's to lower
60's around daybreak on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Highs are
expected to reach the 70's late Monday afternoon. On Tuesday,
afternoon highs are expected to reach the 70's to near 80F in
northern OH and mainly the lower to mid 70's in NW PA, prior to the
cold front passage. Net low-level CAA behind the cold front is
expected to contribute to lows reaching mainly the upper 40's to mid
50's around daybreak Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to build from the
Upper Midwest and vicinity on Wednesday through Thursday. Low-level
dry air advection and a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying
the ridge are expected to cause lake-induced CAPE to wane and
lingering lake-effect rain showers over/generally southeast or south
of Lake Erie to end by early Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, fair
weather is expected through Thursday as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the ridge. Net low-level CAA will limit daytime heating
and cause highs to reach the 60's to near 70F late Wednesday
afternoon. Considerable clearing, easing surface winds, and low
humidity at/near the surface are expected to allow lows to reach
mainly the 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Thursday. During the
day on Thursday, our CWA is forecast to become located along the
western flank of the surface ridge and begin to be impacted by net
low-level WAA. This net low-level WAA regime and daytime heating
should allow late afternoon highs to reach the upper 60's to mid
70's.
Current odds favor fair weather Thursday night through Friday as the
ridge at the surface and aloft begins to exit E'ward and a trough
aloft/attendant surface cold front approach from the Upper Midwest
and vicinity. As a result, our region is expected to remain in a net
low-level WAA regime. Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid
40's to mid 50's around daybreak Friday and be followed by late
afternoon highs reaching mainly the lower to mid 70's.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings are observed with overcast skies
and scattered rain showers. Should gradually improve to mostly
VFR conditions through most of the daytime hours before
conditions deteriorate later tonight as rain showers become more
numerous. Model guidance is showing a wide range of solutions,
with some showing mostly VFR, some showing a mixed bag of
IFR/VFR, others showing widespread IFR or lower conditions. Went
somewhere in the middle with all TAF sites going down to at
least low MVFR, with western TAF sites (KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD)
going down to IFR conditions, which is the area where
confidence is greatest in lower ceilings.
Cyclonic flow varying between northeast and southeast will
persist around 5-10 knots today before weakening to 5 knots or
less tonight.
Outlook...Periods of non-VFR are possible with scattered rain
showers and occasional low ceilings through Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement from Vermilion
to Ripley remain in effect until 8 AM EDT this morning, while the
Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement from Maumee Bay to
Vermilion have been extended until 10 AM this morning given latest
forecast trends. A trough lingers over Lake Erie through Monday
night. Simultaneously, Helene's remnant low will continue to weaken
as it drifts ENE'ward from the Lower to Upper OH Valley through
Monday. NE'erly to E'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots early this
morning ease to 10 to 20 knots by midday today and remain around 10
to 20 knots through Sunday evening. Waves as large as 4 to 8 feet
early this morning subside to 4 feet or less in U.S. waters by
nightfall this evening. Waves are expected to be mainly 3 feet or
less the rest of this evening through Sunday. However, occasional 4
to 5 footers are expected on Sunday, when another Small Craft
Advisory will probably be needed between Reno Beach and Vermilion.
Winds become primarily E'erly and ease gradually to around 10 to 15
knots Sunday night into Monday, which will allow waves to subside to
3 feet or less basin-wide.
E'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots veer to SW'erly Monday night into
Tuesday as a warm front sweeps generally N'ward across Lake Erie.
The SW'erly winds veer quickly to NW'erly and freshen to around 10
to 25 knots later on Tuesday as a cold front sweeps SE'ward across
the lake. Waves are expected to build to as large as 3 to 5 feet
behind the cold front. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed, especially east of Vermilion. Behind the cold front, a ridge
builds from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through Wednesday. As a
result, W'erly to NW'erly winds ease gradually to 5 to 15 knots and
waves subside gradually to 3 feet or less.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for
OHZ003-007-009.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for
OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Jaszka
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 7:06 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409281106-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!