LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 18, 3:03 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
390
FXUS64 KLIX 180803
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
303 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Frontal boundary, such as it is, is likely somewhere near or south
of a Hattiesburg to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Dew points
south of that line are well into the 70s, while in the 60s to the
north. Most of the strong thunderstorms remain over the Gulf of
Mexico this morning, but there is a band of storms over the Gulf
to the south of Lake Charles, that if they continue their current
northeastward movement, could produce a training scenario
producing heavy rainfall over portions of the Flood Watch area
over the next 6 hours. Precipitable water value on the special 03Z
LIX sounding was still 1.87 inches, so heavy rainfall still a
concern. For this reason, plan to hold onto the watch until
expiration, unless rain moves out of the area sooner. Pretty much
all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or
sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area. May
take until late afternoon or early evening to completely clear,
however. Beyond sunset this evening, the only real concern for the
remainder of the short term forecast period will be the potential
for some patchy radiation type fog around sunrise Sunday.
The rather wet ground may aid in the development of a cumulus
field across the area on Sunday, but shouldn't have a major impact
on temperatures. As temperature guidance is fairly well clustered,
won't depart from the NBM numbers.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Upper ridging that will move from northern Mexico into Texas on
Sunday will continue to work eastward into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley at midweek, and remain over the northern Gulf through
the end of the week. A shortwave may suppress it somewhat
southward by Thursday or Friday, but it still appears that
significant precipitation will be hard to come by through the end
of the work week next week after this morning's rain. Unlikely to
be much in the way of change in temperatures from day to day
during the workweek, with readings generally 3 to 5 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Earlier IFR or lower conditions have actually improved to VFR at
most terminals since the 06z TAF package was issued. Only KGPT at
the high end of IFR ceilings was producing flight restrictions.
Aside from the threat of TSRA over the next 3-6 hours, there
remains at least some threat of IFR or lower conditions, at least
briefly, through mid morning. MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR
after 18z if not sooner, with VFR conditions through the end of
the 06z TAF package forecast range.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory with forecast issuance, as
any winds greater than 15 knots or so will be convectively related
this morning. Thunderstorms should even move out of the coastal
waters later today or this evening.
Beyond today, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots through
much or all of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 65 89 66 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 89 70 93 72 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 86 69 92 69 / 60 0 0 0
MSY 85 73 90 74 / 60 0 0 0
GPT 82 69 90 70 / 80 10 0 0
PQL 84 68 92 67 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ036-037-039-046>048-
056>060-064-065-071-076>090.
GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MSZ077-083>088.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 18, 3:03 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202405180803-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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