LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 6:27 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...
084
FXUS64 KLIX 222327
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
627 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
For the next few days, ridging and high pressure will continue to
build over the area. As a result, expect dry conditions overall
with an isolated chance of a shower daily during peak daytime
heating hours. In addition to being dry, it will be slightly
warmer than average for this time of year with highs in the mid
90s and heat index values around the low 100s through Tuesday. So,
make sure to stay hydrated over the next couple of days. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
There is a lot of model uncertainty as we head toward mid-week.
NHC has a 70% chance (high) of development for a disturbance in
the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days. Looking at
the models, generally this system would be potentially developing
in the Gulf Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. At the same timeline, a
frontal system will be moving through the Southeastern US and
through the Gulf. Depending on how this frontal system ends up
playing out timing-wise will have a big influence on what happens
with any potential tropical development. Regardless, models are
going to be extremely unreliable until a system forms, if one does
form. It is too soon still to say any details or specifics about
timing, location, magnitude, etc. as a result. We emphasize to the
public to keep following trusted sources and NHC/NWS forecasts as
we head into the workweek and make sure to have a plan in place,
as always. MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
All terminals VFR at forecast issuance time. There have been mid
level clouds and a few isolated SHRA during the afternoon near
the New Orleans terminals and KHUM, but don't expect any flight
restrictions this evening. Any fog around sunrise is expected to
remain isolated as well. Monday looks to be a repeat scenario of
today.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Benign marine conditions expected through Wednesday. Winds will
be easterly to southeasterly and moderate (10-15kts). Starting
Wednesday, winds increase to 15-25kts and easterly to
northeasterly. However, a lot of the late week forecast is still
highly uncertain and will be dependent upon the potential for
tropical development. The hurricane center has an area outlooked
at 70% for tropical development over the next 7 days over the
central/eastern Gulf. Remain updated with future forecasts
concerning this area over the next several days. MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 91 69 89 / 0 0 0 20
BTR 72 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 71 91 71 90 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 75 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 72 90 71 89 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 72 95 71 93 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...MSW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 6:27 PM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409222327-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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