LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 21, 11:38 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...
862
FXUS64 KLIX 220438
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024
Seasonably dry air is in place tonight with precipitable water
values in the 1.2 to 1.4 range. No significant changes needed to
the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024
Tonight through Tuesday, conditions will be pretty dry overall,
looking at the models, as high pressure continues to build over the
area. An isolated shower or two will be possible during peak daytime
heating hours over the next few days, but generally, it will be dry
and warm. Highs are forecast in the mid 90s with heat index values
in the low 100s. While it won't meet heat advisory criteria, be sure
to stay hydrated if you will be outside the next few days as it will
be a bit warmer than normal for this time of year. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024
As we head toward mid-week, there is still a lot of
uncertainty in the models and confidence is lower than usual. But in
general, by Wednesday, there is the potential for a tropical system
to develop in the region by the Yucatan Peninsula. Currently, there
is a 60% chance for development in the next 7 days for this
disturbance. If it forms, it is expected to move into the Gulf
sometime late week. At the same time, a frontal system is expected
to move through the area late next week as this ridge moves eastward
out of our area. These two systems will be dependent on each other
and there are still numerous uncertainties surrounding the timing of
the front and how it relates to potential development of a tropical
system. It is far too soon to say any specifics or details about the
tropical system. And as for the front, expect increased rainfall
chances toward the end of the week, regardless. We will be
monitoring the potential for tropical development closely over the
next week. MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024
Generally VFR conditions through the forecast period. While there
could possibly be a few patches of light fog around sunrise, they
should be brief, if they occur at all.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024
Benign marine conditions expected through Thursday. Winds
will be easterly to southeasterly and moderate (10-15kts) through
Thursday morning. Starting Thursday, winds increase to 15-25kts and
easterly to northeasterly. However, a lot of the late week forecast
is still highly uncertain and will be dependent upon the potential
for tropical development. The hurricane center has an area
outlooked at 60% for tropical development over the next 7 days
over the NW Caribbean and southern gulf. Remain updated with
future forecasts concerning this area over the next several days.
MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 72 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 72 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 75 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 73 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 72 94 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...MSW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 21, 11:38 PM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409220438-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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