IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:40 AM EDT
391
FXUS63 KIWX 130640
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
240 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Warm and dry conditions will persist well into next week.
-Drought conditions will likely continue to expand and worsen.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Very few changes to the going forecast through the weekend with
increasing confidence the remnants of Francine will remain W/SW of
our CWA. Regional 00Z raobs again show a very dry/stable/subsident
airmass in place over the region. This is particularly true at KILN
which will be the airmass steadily advecting into our area given SE
flow through much of the column. Latest deterministic and ensemble
guidance now in much better agreement that impressive 590 dam
midlevel ridge will remain firmly over the central Great Lakes
through early next week and will shunt any available moisture
southwest and west of our area. Will therefore hold with a dry
forecast through Tue. Thermal advections remain meager through this
entire period with 850mb temps holding around 15C. Abundant high
clouds from tropical system will keep highs in check somewhat,
especially today with generally mid 80s expected. More sun over the
weekend into early next week will likely push us into the upper 80s
once again though. Overnight lows remain mild with values around
60F. This is roughly 10 degrees above normal for mid Sep.
Forecast confidence decreases heading into the middle of next week
as there is potential for another tropical system to develop off the
East Coast and potentially move into the Ohio Valley. Latest
guidance showing slightly increased chances for precip on Wed/Thu
associated with the remnants of this system but model
inconsistencies remain very high at this time range. NBM PoP's
reflect this with values at or below 10 percent. Will hold with dry
forecast for now but additional changes are possible over the coming
days. High temps remain in the 80s through next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
High clouds from the remnants of Francine will continue to drift
over the area. A very predominant surface ridge centered near
Hudson Bay will help keep an east flow over northern Indiana.
Lower and mid atmospheric levels appear too dry to support any
clouds or fog. Will keep TAFs short with high overcast and east
winds through the entire TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Skipper
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:40 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409130640-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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