IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 2:55 PM EDT
311
FXUS63 KIWX 121855
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Primarily dry conditions will persist through at least Tuesday
with drought conditions possibly expanding and worsening.
There is a chance for rain on Wednesday and Thursday of next
week.
- Highs in the 80s will be common into the next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
With high pressure to the east and the low pressure system
associated with tropical system Francine to our south, this puts our
area in drying easterly flow at least for the short term. Francine
is expected to meander northward between this evening and Friday
morning allowing the outer reaches of Francine's vorticity to reach
the area. As such, expect low level theta-e and moisture to increase
in the area. However, given how dry we have been and that drought
does tend to beget drought, am hesitant to add PoPs to grids that
don't have them already and have decided to cut them where they
already are. Forecast soundings indicate night time into early
morning may be the best chance for any rain to occur given closer
dew point depressions than during the day. Also don't believe that a
sprinkle will be enough to make a dent in an already drying ground.
It appears this higher theta-e air is pushed out Sunday night
allowing for drier air into at least Tuesday night. The early to mid
week period is when the upper low associated with Francine gets
sheared out and models begin to have issues with trying to capture
its location. The ECMWF and now the 12z GFS do try to bring some
better low level theta-e into the area by Wednesday as some western
Atlantic moisture works in on those east winds. It, as a result, has
some convective precipitation then and Thursday. Will allow NBM to
handle PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday, which leaves an
unmentionable 10 percent for now, but could see PoPs being added to
this period.
With 850 mb temperatures in the mid teens Celsius, mid 80s with a
few spots seeing upper 80s will be possible for those days where
better mixing occurs. Saturday and Sunday seem most possible to
attain the mid to upper 80s, but Friday provides some uncertainty
with the increased moisture potentially limiting mixing and high
clouds coming in as well. Have allowed for some lower 80s then as a
result. Otherwise highs in the 80s will be common for this forecast
period. Generally, expect dew points in the 50s, and 60s where the
better low level theta-e airmass resides (e.g. south of US-30 and
west of I-69 on Friday).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
More of the same (VFR with light easterly winds) through the
TAF cycle with strong upper ridging continuing to dominate. High
clouds may increase a bit into tonight and tomorrow otherwise.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 2:55 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409121855-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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