IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:02 AM EDT
510
FXUS63 KIWX 120502
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
102 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm and dry with highs well into the 80s and near
90 Thursday.
- Low humidity with no rainfall leading to poor soil moisture
conditions.
- The next decent chance for rain is not until next Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
The region will remain warm and dry for the next several days under
the dominance of a strong ridge of high pressure. Afternoon highs
will warm well into the 80s today, and to near 90 degrees on
Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the 25 to
30 percent range, which brings up potential fire weather concerns,
but winds should generally remain less than 20 mph. Therefore,
although we will not meet Red Flag Warning criteria, care should
be used if doing any outdoor burning, especially on Thursday as
winds will be slightly breezy. Overnight tonight, mostly clear
skies will lead to radiational cooling that will drop lows into
the 50s. There could again be some patchy dense fog, especially
across northwest Ohio into southeast Michigan where dewpoints
will be a bit higher. On Thursday night, increasing cloud cover
related to Tropical Storm Francine will keep temperatures slightly
warmer and in the low 60s.
Concerning Tropical Storm Francine, models are now in good agreement
that the center will stay far enough south of the local area that we
will see little if any rain from this system. The main impacts being
increased clouds and breezy winds, and therefore somewhat cooler
temperatures on Friday and Saturday, although highs will still be in
the low 80s. East coast ridging then seems to build back in again
for Sunday and Monday, giving more confidence in drier weather. On
Tuesday and Wednesday, a low is expected to move in from the east
under the blocking ridge. If this low tracks south of the region we
will remain dry, but models do shift it northerly on Wednesday,
providing for a possible chance of rain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Prevailing VFR through the TAF forecast period with light and
variable winds and dry conditions. Westerly winds will pick up
to around 10 kts late morning into early afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Johnson
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:02 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409120502-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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