PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 6:06 PM CDT
347
FXUS63 KPAH 132306 AAA
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
606 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The remnants of Francine may still produce up to another 1-2
inches of rainfall heading into the weekend, mainly across
portions of Western Kentucky and far southeast portions of
SEMO. Some gusts to 15-25 mph will remain possible into this
evening.
- After Francine's departure, drier and warmer weather will
build across the area for the middle and end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Not much has changed with the forecast. Extra-tropical bands are
still working through at least the southern portions of the Quad
State area, largely in western KY and southeast MO. Some lightning
is being detected with some deeper convection in those same
locations as afternoon instability builds. The main concerns from
these storms will be tropical downpours with a quick inch or so of
rainfall. It isn't out of the question that a few locations my see
localized greater totals, especially where the rain bands train for
a longer period of time.
Outside of west KY and SEMO not expecting much rain. In fact, the
precipitation totals forecast for southwest IN and all but the far
southern points of southern IL are generally under a quarter inch
from tonight through Saturday.
Some gusty winds are still expected at least into the early evening
hours with gusts approaching 20-25 mph at times due to the tighter
pressure gradient. That gradient will weaken overnight through the
weekend as the system gradually fills in.
The extra-tropical system is expected to meander slowly to the
southeast through the weekend into early Monday with plenty of
moisture remaining in place across the Quad State area. This will
lead to continued cloudy skies along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The greatest coverage each day will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours with peak heating/instability.
Highs through the weekend will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest
to the northeast with less cloud cover/precipitation. Lows will be
in the 60s.
Upper-level ridging will build across the center part of the CONUS
for the rest of the week, leading to increased temperatures along
with the next stretch of dry weather. In fact, after Monday, no rain
is in the forecast through Friday. Temperatures will steadily warm
through the week, reaching the mid to upper 80s by Thursday and
Friday, which is near to slightly above normal!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Areas of convection will likely persist for another few hours
along and near the CGI to EVV corridor. Wind gusts of up to 35
to 40 kts will be possible with some of the storms as they move
off to the northwest amid the flow of the decaying tropical
system. Rich low level moisture may lead to fog formation,
possibly locally dense in places overnight. Winds may mitigate
this threat some but where winds calm fog will likely quickly
develop in the overnight. Lingering low clouds are possible
through Saturday morning with scattered showers and a few storms
possible.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...JGG
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 6:06 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409132306-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH-AAA)
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