NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 13, 7:00 AM AST
491
WTNT42 KNHC 130253
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
The depression has been holding steady this evening. After a lull
in the convective activity which exposed the low-level circulation,
thunderstorms have been building steadily to the east of the center.
Unfortunately, the scatterometer pass missed the core of the system
once again. The initial intensity remains at 30 kt, close to the
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
A subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is steering the
system west-northwestward at about 14 kt. As the ridge weakens
during the next few days, the cyclone should gradually slow and turn
more westward. There is still a large spread in the track guidance
envelope early next week, which seems partially related to the depth
of the vortex. The ECMWF solution shows a much stronger system that
turns the cyclone to the north sooner compared to the GFS and
GFS-based regional models showing a weaker system that moves faster
and stays in the low-level westerly flow. The latest NHC track
forecast has been nudged a little to the south and lies between the
previous prediction and the consensus aids.
Marginal environmental conditions appear to be preventing the
depression from making any appreciable intensity changes. Visible
satellite imagery from earlier today showed a band of Saharan dust
wrapping around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The
intensity guidance has shifted downward again this cycle, with many
models showing a steady-to-weakening system over the next 3-4 days.
By the end of the forecast period, there is quite a bit of spread in
the intensity guidance as noted earlier. The latest NHC intensity
forecast has been decreased slightly but remains on the high side of
the various aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 19.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.7N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.6N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 19.8N 49.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Source: NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 13, 7:00 AM AST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409130300-KNHC-WTNT42-TCDAT2)
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