NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 15, 1:00 AM AST
889
WTNT42 KNHC 142032
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024
Over the past couple of hours, the center of Gordon had been
exposed to the west of the convective canopy. However, there have
been recent bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm
and the overall satellite presentation of the system has improved.
The environment surrounding Gordon is still unfavorable, with
moderate westerly vertical wind shear and a dry stable airmass
continuing to have some impact on the cyclone. Gordon is likely in
somewhat of a steady state, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt
for this advisory. This agrees with the subjective and objective
intensity estimates.
The tropical storm is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday,
as it continues to experience moderate shear and a drier and more
stable airmass. Model guidance has trended weaker towards the end of
the period and the intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement
with the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Global models have continued
to trend towards Gordon struggling to produce convection, and it is
possible Gordon may degenerate into a remnant low or surface trough
by the middle of the forecast period. The current forecast keeps
Gordon as a tropical cyclone through the period, although this could
be generous and subsequent changes may be needed in future
advisories.
Gordon is tracking westward at 270/9 kt, and a gradual turn toward
the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the
next couple of days, in agreement with the latest track guidance. A
shortwave trough approaching from the northwest of Gordon will open
a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge and allow the tropical
cyclone to turn slowly northward. The new track forecast is nearly
the same as the previous forecast, except with a slightly slower
forward motion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 20.3N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.0N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 19.9N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 20.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 21.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney
Source: NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 15, 1:00 AM AST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409142100-KNHC-WTNT42-TCDAT2)
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