ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:20 PM EDT
992
FXUS61 KILN 121720
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
120 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will maintain control of the
weather in the Ohio Valley today with an increase in cloud
cover from the southwest ahead of the remnants of Francine.
Clouds will continue to increase with a few light rain showers,
mainly along and south of the Ohio River late tonight into
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early afternoon update was primarily centered around dropping
dewpoints over the CWA and going through early Friday. This
drier surface layer fits well with the scant rainfall expected
overnight and early Friday as it tries to overcome an
unreceptive lower atmosphere. Some few spots southwest of metro
Cincy may see a more beneficial rainfall early Friday morning,
but models producing this band of rain show it to be fairly
narrow and right outside of the CWA border with Louisville.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Mid level ridge from the Great Lakes thru the Mid Atlantic will
work as rex block. This will keep any moisture from the remnants
of Francine generally confined to the Ohio River and southwest
late tonight into Friday. Have limited pops to slight
chance/chance categories with light QPF generally a tenth of an
inch or less. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s
northeast to the lower and middle 60s southwest. Highs on Friday
to range from near 80 southwest where clouds are thickest to the
mid 80s northeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather is forecast to return as the remnants of Francine
reach the Western Ohio Valley, though persistent high pressure to
the north should limit the chance for heavy and widespread precip.
For Friday night through Sunday, showers and a few thunderstorms
will be possible mainly across southwestern locations including
Cincinnati. A low chance of showers spreads east through most of the
area during Monday through Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to remain warm through the period, with
some fluctuation due to cloud cover and possible precip. Highs are
forecast to be mainly in the 80s, with lows in the low and mid
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VFR forecast remains in play for the forecast for yet another
day.
Overnight/early Friday rainfall potential southwest of
Cincinnati does not present a realistic scenario to reach the
CVG or LUK terminals. If rain were to reach this far, it would
be expected to be light and falling from a mid deck aoa 8kft
with VFR vsbys.
Thickening cloud cover overnight will primarily be cirrus and
then some 8-10kft cigs will affect CVG/LUK in the morning. This
AS/high based SC deck will work towards ILN and DAY towards
afternoon, but is expected to remain out of central Ohio and
CMH/LCK terminals.
Stronger winds have not begun to materialize this afternoon,
though a few gusts are starting to be noted in a handful of
observations this past hour. Will adjust winds down a little
early in the forecast but am reluctant to remove them. Guidance
earlier this morning was suggesting a later start to the
potential gusts today.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Franks
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:20 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409121720-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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