IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:26 AM EDT
647
FXUS63 KIND 130426
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1226 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rainfall from Francine remnants late tonight into Friday across
southern Indiana, northern extent likely near the I-74 corridor at
best
- A few showers may linger southwest into the weekend, though
amounts, if any, appear light.
- Fairly stagnant pattern through next week, with highs in the low
to mid 80s and lows around 60 to the mid 60s with mostly quiet
weather
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
The broad cirrus shield associated with remnants of Francine has now
fully encompassed most of the forecast area as of mid evening with a
thick mid and high level deck advancing into our southern counties
currently. 0130Z temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to the upper
70s.
The ongoing forecast is in very good shape with respect to
expectations for the rest of the night as the rain shield now into
the lower Ohio Valley makes slow but steady progress against the
residual subsidence and dry air north into the lower Wabash Valley.
The increase of a low level jet into southern Illinois and Indiana
will aid in deeper moisture advection into our southwest counties
with scattered showers expanding in mainly after 05-06Z. The bulk of
the rain chances will focus along and SW of a Terre Haute-
Bloomington-Seymour line through daybreak Friday with largely dry
conditions north of that line.
Lows will fall back into the low and mid 60s over much of the
forecast area. Zone and grid updates out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
This afternoon...
Quiet and very warm conditions with increasing high clouds will
continue across central Indiana this afternoon.
Much of Tonight...
Much of the night will remain quiet as forcing from the remnants of
Francine remains south of central Indiana. Clouds will continue to
lower and thicken, especially in the south half of the area.
Late Tonight into Friday Morning...
Late tonight, a low level jet will reach into southern Indiana,
bringing in moisture and forcing. In addition, a band of vorticity
rotating around the remnants of Francine will bring more forcing.
This will create an area of rain that will move into the southern
forecast area very late tonight into Friday morning.
However, the low level jet will weaken during the early daylight
hours of Friday, and the vorticity will weaken as it moves farther
away from the parent upper low.
Meanwhile, upper and surface highs to the northeast will continue to
influence the northeast forecast area and keep a dry easterly flow
for much of the area. This will stop the band of rain from getting
too far northeast, likely stopping the rain by the vicinity of the
Interstate 74 corridor.
Will go likely or higher PoPs roughly south of a Terre Haute to
Bloomington line, with PoPs dropping off quickly to the northeast of
this line. PoPs will diminish mid to late morning as forcing weakens.
Rainfall amounts could get near an inch in the far southwest,
tapering to up to around half an inch near Bloomington, to little or
none by Indy.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s most areas, with some upper 50s
possible north if clouds remain thin enough.
Friday Afternoon...
Weakening forcing will continue to move northeast and could produce
a brief shower or some sprinkles in the I-74 corridor, with PoPs
ending to the southwest as forcing exits. To the northeast, a dry
forecast will continue.
Rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch during the
afternoon.
High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s northeast with
thinner cloud cover. Elsewhere, highs will top out in the upper 70s
to around 80.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Unfortunately for central Indiana, particularly the northeastern
half of the area, guidance continues the drying trend of the past
several days with respect to the remnants of Francine. The blend, by
virtue of its makeup, lags this trend a bit, and have made some
concomitant adjustments, particularly late in the weekend into early
next week.
The large scale pattern, with the addition of the weakening low
pressure system associated with Francine's remnants to the pre-
existing surface and upper level ridge near and north of the area,
will strongly resemble a Rex block much of the weekend into next
week, which will lead to a relatively stagnant pattern through the
long term, with highs largely in the low to mid 80s and lows largely
in the low to mid 60s - a bit above normal for the time of year. The
blend reflects this relatively well with minor adjustments. This
stagnancy will also keep largely easterly and relatively light
surface winds, and, once the tropical remnants have continued to
weaken and entrain the much drier airmass already in place
associated with the ridge, dry weather from late in the weekend into
next week.
This dryness, given the increasingly lowered expectations for
soaking rainfall, will continue to keep the drought going across
central Indiana. Any opportunity for measurable rainfall looks to be
primarily limited to no better than the southwestern half of central
Indiana through the weekend, if not the far southwestern portion of
the area.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1226 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
Impacts:
- Scattered showers may briefly impact KBMG and KHUF at times from
near daybreak through early this evening
- Occasional gusts up to 20kts possible at KIND and KLAF this
afternoon
Discussion:
Thicker cirrus has overspread the region from the south early this
morning as the remnant circulation from Francine moves through the
lower Mississippi Valley. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower
throughout the night and into the morning...especially at KBMG and
KHUF...as deeper moisture advects into the Wabash Valley. Scattered
showers will lift across southwest portions of central Indiana
throughout the day today...but overall trends support nothing more
than a VCSH mention with the bulk of the deepest moisture associated
with the remnants of Francine remaining to the southwest of central
Indiana.
Any showers will remain southwest of KIND and KLAF throughout the
day outside of a stray sprinkle or very light shower. A decrease in
overall moisture this evening is likely as a new surge of drier air
from the east will advect into the area with ceilings lifting back
up over 10kft at all terminals.
E/SE flow will persist throughout the forecast period with the
potential for occasional gusts to near 20kts again this afternoon at
KIND and KLAF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Ryan
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:26 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409130426-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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