JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 4:50 AM EDT
675
FXUS63 KJKL 130850 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather with episodic light rain chances mainly in
the south and west will continue through the weekend into early
next week.
- Temperatures will largely remain above normal especially across
the north where it looks quite dry through next week, with near
normal temperatures and slightly better chances of rain across
the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 448 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2024
Overall the larger scale synoptic pattern isn't entirely
progressive, with a blocking high in the Great Lakes area keeping
the tropical remnants spinning in the Tennessee Valley over the
next several days.
Current radar trends show a band of light to moderate rainfall
slowly progressing north across Kentucky. Mesonet stations across
the state have reported anywhere from 0.15 to 0.75 inches of rain
since midnight within this band of showers and storms. Models
trends have the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine
continuing to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms today,
tapering off towards this evening. On average, another 0.10 to
0.30 inches of rain can be anticipated with locally higher amounts
in the most persistent bands of rain that form, as indicated by
recent HRRR model runs. Highs today will generally be in the upper
70s to low 80, with mostly cloudy skies through most of the day,
and off an on showers and storms. Tonight, lows are expected to
drop into the low to mid 60s for most, with some clearing.
Saturday, a chance of showers and thunderstorms are possible
across southwest portions of the CWA, with minimal accumulations
expected (a couple hundredths). Highs Saturday are expected to be
a few degrees warmer, in the mid to upper 80s across most of the
area, with cooler highs in the lower 80s for areas such as
Monticello, Somerset, and London, or areas with greatest shower
chances and added cloud cover. Generally partly cloudy skies can
be expected for much of the area Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2024
Relatively quiet weather expected during the extended portion of the
forecast, as a ridge of high pressure will be the primary weather
maker for our area. Based on the latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, GFS
Ensembles, and WPC guidance, an east to west elongated ridge of high
pressure will be in place over the eastern or northeastern portion
of the CONUS through out the extended. We will also have moisture
and lift associated with a stalled front boundary that will be in
place across the Gulf coast from Texas over the Florida and the
southeastern CONUS. The ridge should be the dominant feature, but
could retreat/weaken enough at times to allow a few showers or
storms to push into the periphery our forecast area in the south and
east. Aside from that, we should experience warm and dry weather
across the area. That all being said, rain chances will be quite low
on the days we have rain in the forecast, no more than a 20 percent
chance, with very few thunderstorms expected.
We should just enough cloud cover in place most of the time to
mitigate any ridge valley temperature differences most of the
period. By the end of the forecast period, however, early Thursday
and early Friday, we may see enough clearing to allow for narrow
ridge valley temperature differences. Another mitigating factor will
be the fact that the aforementioned ridge will not be centered
directly overhead, but further off to our east, which is also not
ideal. Daily highs should max out in the lower 80s on average, with
nightly lows falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. With only
very minimal chances for thunderstorms around the area, no
appreciable weather hazards are expected in the extended.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2024
VFR conditions will likely hold through the period, though some
rain is expected - mainly for LOZ/SME tonight which - if heavy
enough - will lower visibility into MVFR categories at times. An
arc of rain will spread across the LOZ/SME terminals, while
visibility and ceilings are likely to remain VFR most of this
time, they may also periodically dip into MVFR categories prior to
12Z. The relatively dry boundary layer should allow for a
reasonably strong inversion, probably keeping any higher wind
gusts associated with Francine's remains aloft. For SYM/SJS/JKL,
still don't see appreciable moisture working that far northward to
warrant anything beyond a a possible VCSH period at JKL and SYM.
At present, expectations are that SJS will remain rain-free.
Mid/high level moisture (VFR mid level clouds) hangs around into
Friday, while any rain bands gradually dissipate and/or shift west
out of the area. Continued light easterly or southeasterly winds,
generally around 5 kts or less, can be expected through the
morning and Friday afternoon. Skies are expected to partially
clear sometime after 0Z, though chose not to reflect that as exact
timing is less certain.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF/GINNICK/RAY
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 4:50 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409130850-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-CCA)
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