IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:00 PM EDT
404
FXUS63 KIND 121700
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another warm and dry today with highs in the mid to upper 80s
- Rainfall from Hurricane Francine late tonight into Friday across
southern Indiana, northern extent likely near the I-74 corridor
- Cooler weather with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the
weekend
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Forecast is in good shape this morning. High clouds continue to
increase from the south from Francine. This trend will continue
through the day, but enough sunshine will be around for temperatures
to top out in the middle and upper 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Today.
The pattern will finally begin to change by late today as the
remnants of Francine approach central Indiana. Another day of warm
and dry weather is expected for today ahead of the arrival of the
remnants with highs again rising into the mid 80s. Cloud cover will
gradually increase from the south to the north through the day which
will help to limit the higher end warm air that was seen yesterday
across southern Indiana, but the substantial sky cover won't be
arriving across central and northern Indiana to provide much relief
from the heat.
Easterly winds will gradually increase through the day today as
surface pressure gradients gradually begin to increase both at the
surface and aloft. Deep mixing is expected again today which will
drop afternoon RH values to the 25 to 35 percent range.
Tonight.
The outermost bands of rain from Francine are expected to arrive
across the Vincennes area late tonight but otherwise dry weather
with cloudy skies will continue to dominate the forecast through
Friday morning. These clouds and gradually increasing dew points
will help to insulate temperatures and keep lows from falling below
the low 60s. Rainfall through daybreak will be minimal with more
details on impacts to Indiana covered in the long term section below.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Friday through Sunday Night.
The end of the week will focus on the arrival of tropical remnants
from the Lower Mississippi Valley and then the slow southeastward
drift of this weak circulation from far western Kentucky across the
Tennessee Valley. Greater confidence in this overall track along
the southern edge of the strong and steady stacked ridge positioned
over east-central North America. Less certainty in rainfall timing
and amounts for the local region although a couple features are
being revealed by latest guidance. Potential for overall moderate
to heavy rainfall will be greatest south of a Terre Haute to
Bloomington to Seymour line although such amounts may only be
tallied following several periods of occasional showers into the
weekend. The vorticity band along the northern periphery of the
small system will bring the first round of organized rain into
midday Friday within the favored area with perhaps heavy downpours
for far southern zones.
Further periods of rain showers are expected through the weekend
albeit with less confidence as the system continues to weaken while
slowly drifting towards the southern Appalachians. Southwestern
counties will have the most opportunities for additional rainfall
with 1.00 inch or greater 3-day totals expected for much of the
southwestern third of central Indiana. Moderate rainfall of 0.50 to
1.00 inches would be most likely in a broad stripe across central
counties in a proximity roughly parallel to Interstate 74 with
lighter amounts for the far northern and northeastern zones.
Slightly above normal temperatures will be lead by morning minimums
elevated by the corresponding moderate humidity. A milder day
Friday under the plume of clouds should lead to slight daytime
moderation through the weekend.
Monday through Wednesday.
The first half of next week will be a static mix of slightly warm
and somewhat humid yet nearly seasonal conditions. The persistent
stacked ridge with align its surface high from the eastern Great
Lakes off into the northern Atlantic Ocean while the decaying
tropical feature lingers to the southeast of the CWA. Mainly rain-
free conditions should be the rule with the noticeably drier column
of the ridge building from east to west into the Midwest although
stray showers cannot be ruled out Monday or Tuesday. The normal
max/min through the long term at Indianapolis is 78/58.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Impacts:
- Some gusts over 15kt possible this afternoon.
- Some visibility restriction possible in rain at southern sites
Friday
Discussion:
A few wind gusts around 15kt may develop this afternoon. Otherwise
quiet conditions will continue through at least the first half of
the TAF period with increasing high then mid cloud.
Bands of rain from the remnants of Francine will move into the KHUF
and KBMG areas after 09Z, with KBMG the most likely to see rain
Friday morning. Ceilings will drop to low VFR in those sites with a
potential for MVFR. Visibility may be reduced to MVFR at times.
Farther north, VFR conditions will persist with little or no rain.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:00 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409121700-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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