PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 7:54 PM EDT
096
FXUS61 KPBZ 102354
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
754 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and ridging aloft will keep dry weather and above
average temperatures in the forecast this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High pressure provides a mostly clear night, with seasonable
temperatures.
- Patchy fog, mainly in valleys, will be possible late tonight.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Surface high pressure will very slowly drift eastward from the
Upper Ohio Valley tonight. Daytime cumulus will dissipate with
sunset, leaving a mostly clear evening. Some weak warm advection
may commence overnight, leading to some patchy fog development
that will likely favor locations near the still-warm major
rivers. Overnight lows will run near or just a touch below
seasonal norms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions continue under
high pressure.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Remnant fog will likely burn off between 7am and 9am Wednesday
morning with surface heating.
Confidence is high that above average temperatures will continue
into Wednesday as the ridge axis advances over the Great Lakes.
There is the potential for 90F temperatures in eastern Ohio if
dew point fall to near or below 50F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weather and above average temperatures into next
weekend.
- Tropical Storm Francine lingers in the Gulf of Mexico, impacts
may be limit to just the South.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles generally hold eastern ridging through Friday with
some question thereafter in regards to the remnants of Francine.
The latest NBM run has decreased the PoPs over the weekend
given the blocking pattern of the ridge over the East Coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weather and above average temperatures into next
weekend.
- Tropical Storm Francine lingers in the Gulf of Mexico, impacts
may be limit to just the South.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles generally hold eastern ridging through Friday with
some question thereafter in regards to the remnants of Francine.
The latest NBM run has decreased the PoPs over the weekend
given the blocking pattern of the ridge over the East Coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with light wind and low probability for a few passing cirrus
and Tuesday afternoon cu is expected.
Strong radiational cooling and light wind will promote river
valley fog, though meager near surface moisture should keep
impacts away from most terminals. The exception is FKL where
probability is high enough (20%) of vsbys less than 1 mile for a
mention.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions will persist through much of the rest of the week
under the influence of high pressure with low probabilities of
river valley fog each morning.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/Rackley
LONG TERM...Hefferan/Rackley
AVIATION...Frazier
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 7:54 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409102354-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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