ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 6:55 AM EDT
703
FXUS61 KILN 101055
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
655 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the
region through mid week. Remnants from Tropical Storm Francine
may eventually bring a chance of showers to the Ohio Valley
late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley today.
This will result in sunny skies and light winds. Have adjusted
dewpoints down a bit this afternoon due to mixing. Based on the
HRRR integrated smoke product, it appears any elevated smoke
layer will be shunted to the west, with perhaps some degree of
hazy skies over the Tri- State region. Temperatures will be
warmer again today based on increasing mid-level heights.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Dry air in the low levels (and a very dry ground) will allow
temperatures to fall below normal tonight, then rise above
normal on Wednesday. Have undercut dewpoint guidance once again
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As we head towards the end of the work week, our focus begins to
shift to the remains of Francine which is expected to transition
over to an upper level closed low. Models are consistent at this
point in taking the center of the mid level closed low near
southeast Missouri by Friday morning. As this occurs, clouds will
increase from the south and southwest Wednesday night into Thursday.
Increasing deeper moisture and lift associated with the low should
bring an increase in pcpn chances to our southwest zones Thursday
night into Friday morning. On Friday, the center of the low appears
to meander relatively in place. Thus, the advection of pcpn to the
north and east should be limited. Warm highs on Thursday (85 to 90)
should cool by Friday (mid 70s south to lower 80s north) due to
clouds and the threat for pcpn.
For the upcoming weekend and going into early next week, uncertainty
still remains on what will happen to the upper level low and where
it will go. The operational ECMWF/GFS and its ensemble members
suggest that a strengthening ridge across the Great Lakes will
slowly rotate southeast into the New England region. This solution
would act as a block to the movement of the upper low to our west,
and allow it to weaken/shear with time and perhaps even retrograde
it some to the west. The operational CMC and its ensemble members
want to push the upper level low northeast into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley, which would force the upper ridge to rotate farther
east. The ECMWF/GFS solution seems the most plausible at this point,
meaning that it would be hard for the upper level low to push into
the strengthening ridge. From an NBM stand point, some of the CMC
members are blended into the overall NBM which keeps higher chance
PoPs in the forecast. Have lowered these values some given the
potential solution could end up being a drier forecast. We will
continue to tweak the forecast as we get closer to the weekend.
Highs will mainly be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with lows in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure ridging over the Ohio Valley will continue
to provide VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be
light under the ridge.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 6:55 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409101055-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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