BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 10:00 PM EDT
676
FXUS61 KBOX 080200
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1000 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through southern New England late today into the
evening will bring a period of showers to most areas, along with a
few embedded thunderstorms. Clearing and cooler behind the front for
late tonight and Sunday. High pressure will be in control through
the upcoming week with temperatures trending warmer and dryer
as surface high pressure builds over the eastern US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 PM update...
Cold front moving through SE MA at 10 pm with narrow line of
enhanced showers and brief 30+ mph NW gusts accompanying the
front. Front will cross Cape Cod 03-05z and ACK by 06z. A few
brief post-frontal showers may impact western MA/CT during the
next hour, otherwise rapid drying in the column will promote
clearing skies overnight. Cooling temps behind the front with
lows dropping into the mid-upper 40s interior and low-mid 50s
near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A good deal of dry air filters in behind the front keeping skies
clear even as the upper low lift out of NY/northern New England into
Canada. It will be breezy thanks to a tighter pressure gradient with
west winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20 kts in some locations. Highs only
reach into the 60s and low 70s. Winds diminish a bit overnight as
temperatures dip into the upper 40s and low 50s going into the
second week of September.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Very quiet period of weather in the extended forecast, with the only
noteworthy aspect being temperatures 10 degrees above normal by the
end of the week. After a couple of seasonable days on Monday and
Tuesday, temperatures will begin to rise to above normal levels as a
large area of surface high pressure builds over the eastern US. The
center of the surface high is expected to be positioned well south
of southern New England which will allow for south/southwesterly
flow to advect an anomalously warm air mass over The NOrtheast for
much of next week. By Wednesday 925 hPa temps reach 17 to 18 Celsius
which will support surface temperatures in the low 70s. Warm
advection continues into Thursday and Friday with 925 hPa temps
climbing close to 20 Celsius, supporting highs in the mid to upper
80s. This would be consistent with temperatures about 10 degrees
above normal for mid-September in southern New England. The presence
of high pressure should support mainly sunny weather next week with
very little chance for precipitation at this time. Warm/dry weather
looks to continue into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
This afternoon...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact
timing.
Showers and MVFR to localized IFR cigs moving into western
MA/CT later in the day. Isolated thunder possible. Wind
becoming S 8-15 kt.
Tonight...High confidence in trends.
A brief period of showers move through SNE during the evening
with low end VFR-MVFR cigs. Showers move offshore 02-05Z
followed by clearing skies overnight. Cold front with wind shift
to NW moves W to E across SNE 23-04z, closer to 06z at ACK.
Brief G20 kt possible with FROPA.
Sunday...High confidence.
VFR. NW wind 10-20 kt.
Sunday night...High confidence.
VFR. W wind 5-10 kt.
KBOS TAF...High confidence
Line of showers should reach BOS between 01 and 02Z. No thunder
expected, but a brief period of 25 knot gusts may be possible.
KBDL TAF...High confidence
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Sunday night...High confidence.
Easterly swell from offshore storm peaks today with 6-9 ft seas over
eastern waters and 5-7 ft over southern waters. Seas will gradually
subside tonight into Sunday with seas falling below 5 ft on Sunday.
N winds this morning will shift to S this afternoon, then post-
frontal NW winds will increase to 15-20 kt late tonight into Sunday
morning before gradually diminishing in the afternoon and
overnight. Low risk for a few 25 kt gusts tonight behind the
cold front.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/RM
NEAR TERM...KJC/RM
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...BW/RM
MARINE...BW/RM
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 10:00 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409080200-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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