PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 1:51 PM CDT
323
FXUS63 KPAH 111851
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
151 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The remnants of hurricane Francine will bring much needed
rainfall later on Thursday through most of the day Friday.
Between 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast across most of the
region. Wind gusts between 20-30 mph are also possible
Thursday afternoon into Friday Morning.
- Daily shower and storms chances linger over the weekend into
early next week as the weather pattern remains unsettled with
the potential for additional tropical moisture from the east.
- Below normal temperatures are forecast Thursday through
Sunday, followed by the potential for near to slightly above
normal temperatures by the second half of next week as a ridge
of high pressure tries to build in from the west.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Unseasonably warm conditions prevail this afternoon with abundant
sunshine and maxTs around 90 degrees as skies are a bit hazy due to
smoke aloft. Otherwise, the main focus is Hurricane Francine down in
the Gulf of Mexico. The latest NHC track has Francine making
landfall tonight in Louisiana before moving north across the
lower Mississippi River Valley on Thursday. The outer remnants
are progged to reach the FA late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening when pcpn will spread from north to south. Did
lean slower with PoPs as model soundings show quite a bit of dry
air in the low-levels of the column that will support virga
initially.
As an area of 850 mb frontogenesis and isentropic lift arrives
by Thursday evening, saturation in the column will quickly
occur supporting a period of steady rain through Thursday night.
Both model guidance and the NHC remain consistent with keeping
the low a bit more south across northeast Arkansas and western
Tennessee into the day Friday. This will inhibit the severe
weather potential as the better instability, higher dewpoints
in the low 70s, and its associated tornado risk would remain SE
of the FA. Numerous scattered showers and storms will also make
it difficult to destabilize as pcpn chances prevail into Friday
night. While confidence remains low, any shift in the track
would increase the potential, especially in western Kentucky.
The potential for heavy rainfall still does not look terribly
concerning as QPF totals are generally progged between 1 to 3 inches
through Saturday. The 90-95th percentile on the ensembles would
support locally higher amounts around 4 inches, but even that
over a long duration is unlikely to cause many issues with the
mean now keeping most of the FA below 3 inches. However,
torrential tropical downpours can still lead to brief runoff
and poor drainage on roadways given the extremely dry soil
conditions. Otherwise, did bump up NBM winds for Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning. The momentum transfer in BUFKIT
on the GFS/NAM support the potential for wind gusts between
20-30 mph as the pressure gradient tightens. In fact, the NAEFS
ESAT shows 850 mb winds above the 95th percentile on Thursday,
and SLP below the 5th percentile.
While sfc low pressure dissipates over the weekend, cyclonic flow
associated with a 500 mb low will support the risk for daily shower
and storm chances over the weekend. Sunday looks to be the
better of the two days in terms of having some dry intervals as
models now show the energy may phase with another tropical
disturbance off the Carolinas by early next week. This will
keep pcpn chances in the forecast as additional tropical
moisture may be advected in from the east. No day in particular
looks terribly concerning at this time, but something to
monitor. At the very least, the much needed rain chances will
keep temps cooler as maxTs remain slightly below normal in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Temps may then return to near to
slightly above normal by the second half of next week as a
upper level ridge axis associated with a omega block builds
over the FA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
VFR conditions prevail as mostly clear skies today give way to
increasing high clouds tonight. Light E-ESE winds around 5 kts
can be expected before turning light & variable after sunset.
Clouds will then continue to gradually thicken Thursday morning
ahead of Hurricane Francine down south. E-ESE winds between 5-10
kts will increase towards the end of the TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 1:51 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409111851-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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