JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 4:27 PM EDT
946
FXUS63 KJKL 102027
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
427 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A persistent tranquil weather pattern continues under high
pressure through early Thursday.
- The next opportunity for rain is not until late Thursday through
the weekend, and possibly lingering into early next week. These
rain chances are mainly associated with the remnants of
Francine, which are expected to linger over the Mid-South and
Southeast U.S.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 148 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
The forecast continues to be on target. Merely freshened up the
hourly temperatures and dew points through the rest of this
afternoon, incorporating the current trend in the observations.
UPDATE Issued at 1055 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
Valley fog has burned off and hourly temperatures have been
freshened up through early this afternoon to reflect the current
trends in the observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track.
UPDATE Issued at 706 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
There are no changes to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
High pressure remains in control for the duration of the short-term
period through Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
gradually trend upward, peaking for the week Wednesday afternoon
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. High-level thin cirrus
associated with Francine will begin to push north later today and
persist into Wednesday, but will only gradually thicken with time
from south to north. Expect a continued significant ridge-valley
split in temperatures tonight, with upper 50s on the ridges and mid
to upper 40s in the coldest valley locations.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 427 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
Focus remains on Francine for the extended portion of the
forecast. In general, operational and ensemble solutions continue
to show good agreement with the location of Francine through 12Z
Friday. Trends in solutions show a slight eastward shift with
Francine's landfall, with the center over the Mid-South, somewhere
between MEM/MEG and the Bootheel of MO by Friday morning.
Francine dissipates quickly thereafter, with perhaps a slight
southeastward jot as its surface lows fills.
Aloft, weak ridging will strengthen with a center of high
pressure developing and becoming centered over the Great Lakes as
Francine tracks out of the Gulf and up the Mississippi river
valley. By the end of the period, this high has shifted out into
the Atlantic and Francine has dissipated. However, there is some
lingering troughiness that remains in place across the eastern
CONUS, which may help keep at least a small threat of PoPs in the
forecast through the remainder of the extended. With time, as
Francine dissipates, convection would be expected to take on more
of a diurnal trend.
The key detail in solutions is what happens after Francine's
overall circulation broadens and the system stalls out/dissipates
over western Tennessee and Kentucky. Model solutions have become
fairly consistent and do not bode well for the potential of
substantial rainfall across far eastern Kentucky. Tropical storms
need to be further east in order to avoid the southeast downslope
conditions that cut into overall rainfall totals. Moisture will
increase across eastern Kentucky from the southwest late in the
day Thursday and continue through Friday and into the weekend. But
uncertainty continues with respect to how much of that moisture
actually manages to get converted into useful rainfall over our
forecast area. Model solutions are also beginning to show the
downsloping effects in QPF more significantly with each cycle.
Ensemble probabilities of total QPF being GTE to 0.5 inches across
our area from Friday through Monday is about 60-90% along and
west of the I-75 corridor and only 20-50% east of the I-75
corridor. Probabilities for GTE 1.0 inch are between 50-70% along
and west of the I-75 corridor, then as low as 10-40% east of I-75.
NBM PoPs have fallen off slightly across our far east as well,
but in general still max out around 70% in our southwest. Have
also coordinated with WPC to trim QPF for our far east and
southeastern zones due to impacts from downsloping. For the entire
event, from Friday through Monday, current forecasts are between
an inch, and an inch and a half of rainfall either side and west
of the I-75 corridor within our forecast area. Further east, total
QPF is considerably lower, averaging between a tenth and three
quarters of an inch, with the lowest totals over the eastern third
of our CWA. We need some rain...let's hope QPF trends increase a
bit more with future cycles.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
Nearby high pressure will continue to allow for mainly clear skies
and light winds through this evening. Few to scattered high clouds
will invade from the south generally after midnight, with some IFR
or lower fog developing within the deeper river valley once again
between 04 and 13z. This will likely avoid the terminals, with the
fog burning off before 14z. VFR conditions will continue through
the rest of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 4:27 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409102027-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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