JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 2:56 AM EDT
223
FXUS63 KJKL 090656
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
256 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near-record to record low temperatures are forecast this
morning. This is followed by a gradual warm-up as the week goes
by.
- The next opportunity for rain is not until late Thursday through
next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 131 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2024
Previous forecast remains largely on track with temperatures
falling into and through the 40s across most of eastern Kentucky
early this morning. A few of the warmer spots are still in the
lower and mid 50s. Fog is also developing in the favored deeper
mainstem river valleys, as per satellite imagery and observations.
UPDATE Issued at 955 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2024
Updated forecast for hourly temperatures trending 2 to 5 degrees
cooler as of 01Z compared to the previous forecast. As high
pressure moves across the area, this pattern is conducive to
rapidly cooling nighttime temperatures. Valley fog is again
expected to develop around or shortly after midnight increasing in
coverage overnight, tapering off after sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2024
An amplified upper level pattern remained in place across the
CONUS late today, with ridging over the west and troughing over
the east. At the surface, sprawling high pressure was centered
over IL. During the short term period, the upper level pattern
will deamplify and slowly shift eastward, with the prevailing
westerlies aloft retreating to our north and our geopotential
heights rising. At the surface, the high will only shift as far
east as the central Appalachians by dawn on Tuesday, keeping a dry
air mass in place with clear skies. Sunshine on Monday will
gradually modify our air mass, with high temps beginning to climb
from weekend readings. Clear skies each night will allow for good
radiational cooling and pooling of cold air in valleys, with
ridge/valley temperature differences resulting. Tonight's lows
will be near record cold again.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2024
Operational models and their ensemble members are in very good
agreement through the long-term window. Synoptically, upper-level
ridging with surface high pressure will be firmly in place over
much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will keep benign
weather over eastern Kentucky through much of the forecast period.
Temperatures for the start of the period are forecast to climb
into the mid-80s and remain there for the remainder of the week.
Overnight lows will see a decent ridge-valley split Tuesday night
and again Wednesday night, but with the approach of our next
system from Thursday onward the ridge-valley spread will become
increasingly minimized.
Attention will shift away from the Bluegrass State for the middle of
the week as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, currently over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, begins to strengthen and move toward
the North Gulf Coast. The system is forecast to become a tropical
storm within the next 24 hours, and then strengthen to at least
minimal hurricane strength Wednesday before landfall. The remnants
of this system are then forecast to move north-northeastward up the
Mississippi River Valley to near Cape Girardeau by Friday evening.
As this system gains latitude and moves inland, the overall
circulation is expected to broaden significantly, which should bring
eastern Kentucky within the outer envelope of the enlarged
circulation. Initially, the initial push of southeast low-level flow
may induce downslope drying, especially over far
eastern/southeastern Kentucky. However, moisture and cloud cover
will increase from the southwest during the day Thursday and
continue into Friday and Saturday, with PoPs now maxing out in the
50-60 percent range from approximately Interstate 75 and points west
during this time. With a blocking upper high to the northeast, the
steering currents for the remnant circulation may stall over the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend, which warrants keeping 30-40
PoPs in the forecast through the end of the long term period Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2024
With exception of localized MVFR/IFR or worse conditions developing
in late night/early morning fog, VFR conditions and light winds
will prevail through the period. Fog is not expected to affect
the TAF sites. Any fog should lift by around 14z this morning.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC/VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL/GINNICK
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 2:56 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409090656-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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