IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 1:33 AM EDT
451
FXUS63 KIND 080533
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
133 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool tonight with lows tonight in the upper 30s to low 40s.
- Dry weather through the work week with gradually increasing
temperatures
- Dry air will create slightly elevated fire weather danger for much
of next week
- Potential for rainfall next weekend. High uncertainty event
associated with a developing tropical low in the Western Gulf.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed. Current surface analysis shows a strong surface high
continues to build in from the northwest providing quiet weather
conditions. Clear skies, light winds, and a very dry airmass in
place has allowed for efficient radiational cooling with
temperatures already well in the 50s. These favorable conditions
will continue through the overnight which will lead to anomalously
cold lows around the low to mid 40s. Some rural areas north of
I-70 could even fall into the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in
place over MN/WI/IA. This was resulting in a cool, N flow across
Central Indiana as a cool air mass settles across our area. GOES16
shows some lake clouds continuing to steam off of Lake Michigan and
stream into NW Indiana, and NW parts of the forecast area.
Otherwise, skies were partly cloudy across Central Indiana. Temps
were cool, mainly in the mid 60s. Aloft, strong ridging was in place
over the Rockies, while a deep upper low was found over Ontario.
This was continuing to result in NW flow across Central Indiana and
subsidence.
Tonight and Sunday -
More pleasant weather is expected tonight and Sunday.
Models suggest the the upper ridge in place over the Rockies will
slowly continue to shift eastward reaching the western plains by
Sunday night. This will keep the cool NW flow in place across
Central Indiana along with strong subsidence. Mid levels continue to
show strong drying also. All of this will impact the surface with
the arrival of the strong high pressure system over the upper
midwest settling across IL/IN. This will result in clear skies
tonight and mostly sunny skies on Monday.
Cold air advection is beginning to end with this system as the core
of the cold air begins to shift east. Still with dry dew points
tonight and good radiational cooling in play, lows in the upper 30s
to lower 40s will be expected. On Sunday, plenty of sunshine will be
in play and high temperatures should be slightly warmer than
persistence, reaching near 70 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
Sunday Night through Wednesday...
Central Indiana will undergo a slow regime change early next week as
the parent trough lifts eastward and ridging builds. Sunday night
will still likely be on the cool side as central Indiana remains
underneath mostly clear skies and efficient cooling conditions.
Current expectation is for lows in the mid 40s.
Monday onward, afternoon highs will climb into the 80s once again
across the region. Given significant drying of the near surface
layer beneath the expanding ridge, highs and lows are expected to
trend towards the more extreme percentiles of temperature guidance.
This means large diurnal swings with highs between 85 and 90, and
lows in the 50s for Tuesday through Thursday.
Dry conditions are a certainty for Tuesday through Thursday next
week, with zero ensemble members indicating any QPF beneath the
ridge across the Ohio Valley. A few brief stretches of upper level
cirrus are possible, but skies should remain mostly clear during
this period.
Friday and Beyond...
The ridge axis is expected to be centered over the Ohio Valley late
Thursday leading to continued dry conditions through Friday.
However, a developing tropical low over the Western Gulf could end
this stretch of dry weather next weekend. Many uncertainties still
remain, but ensemble guidance is now honing in on a wide breadth of
moist air pushing northward next weekend into the southern Ohio
Valley in association to this tropical low. There are variable
solutions on the northward extent of moisture return, but if the
ridge breaks down enough in the presence of CVA and moisture
advection, widespread rainfall will be possible. Currently, LREF
probabilities give central Indiana a 15% chance of 0.1" of rain
this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
Impacts:
-None.
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF periods with only occasional
passing cirrus. Winds will generally remain northerly at less than
10 kts through the period with a slight shift to a more westerly
direction at LAF after 16Z. Can't rule out brief fog towards
daybreak this morning, but chances are too low for a TAF mention.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...White
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 1:33 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409080533-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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