JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 11:06 AM EDT
984
FXUS63 KJKL 071506
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1106 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry conditions are expected through the remainder of
this weekend.
- Record or near-record low temperatures are forecast for Sunday
and Monday mornings. This is followed by a gradual warm-up next
week.
- Other than chances for showers mainly before sunrise, the next
slight chance for rain does not arrive until late in the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Post frontal diurnal cu have developed more than anticipated, and
sky cover has been increased in the very near term. Will still
look for them to thin out with time today as mixing continues in
the drier air mass moving in.
UPDATE Issued at 924 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Morning obs are blended into the forecast, without any substantive
changes.
UPDATE Issued at 727 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Sent out an update to the text forecast removing any mention of
precipitation for the remainder of the morning along the Virginia
border. Otherwise, there are no substantive changes to the
forecast, with just minor tweaks to Sky grids for the next few
hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
A deep upper low over the Great Lakes region has pushed a cold front
across eastern Kentucky overnight. Associated shower activity will
continue to move east and out of the area by sunrise or shortly
thereafter, with clearing skies through the remainder of the morning
as northerly surface flow and northwesterly flow aloft ushers in a
fall-like air mass over the region. This seasonably chilly and dry
air mass will then remain in place through the remainder of the
short term period. The only notable changes made to the gridded
forecast from the deterministic NBM was to lower dew point
temperatures by several degrees from late this morning through the
remainder of the short-term period (i.e., Sunday afternoon), and to
raise sustained winds slightly especially for this afternoon.
Record or near-record lows are forecast for tonight across the
region. Existing records at official climate stations for September
8th are 49 degrees at KJKL (Jackson Airport) and 45 degrees at KLOZ
(London Airport). Current forecast lows for Sunday morning are 47
degrees at KJKL and 43 degrees at KLOZ, respectively. Meanwhile,
afternoon highs both today and Sunday will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, which is in the range of 10 to 15 degrees below normal
for the first half of September.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
When Eastern Kentucky wakes up to start the next work week on Monday
morning, it will be quite chilly. The Canadian surface high pressure
system responsible for this weekend's calm and cool weather will
promote calm winds and efficient radiational cooling for one more
night. It is plausible that sheltered valleys will drop down into
the low 40s overnight into Monday again, although the gradual
eastward shift of ridging at both the surface and 500mb level will
cause temperatures to moderate as the week progresses.
Expect mostly clear skies through the middle of the week, with
temperatures incrementally rising each day underneath them. On
Monday afternoon, highs will be in the low 70s. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, highs cross back into the 80s and morning lows warm back
up towards the 50s. Ridge-valley temperature splits are likely
within this pattern, and valleys will cool off quicker than ridges
overnight, especially given the angle of the September Sun in some
of our more sheltered valleys. Given this, the formation of
nocturnal valley fog appears possible each night through mid week.
The suite of available forecast guidance agrees that the weather
will remain quiet through Wednesday night, but models begin to
diverge from one another after this point.
As a result, confidence in the forecast for the second half of next
week is lower than the first. Disturbed weather will continue well
to the south of the forecast area in the early portions of the week,
and its evolution will play a large role in our weather late next
week. Some models portray the development of a tropical disturbance
in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Most depict the cold front that
passed through our area earlier today stalling along the I-10
corridor. Further to the north, atmospheric ridging will build into
the Midwestern states. Collectively, this creates somewhat of a
blocking scenario in which tropical moisture tries to work its way
north into our area, but encounters unfavorable synoptics aloft to
support widespread convection. The best rain chances late next week
look to remain south of our forecast area at the moment, but the NBM
has introduced slight chance PoPs on Thursday night and Friday.
Given the aforementioned model uncertainty, these 15-20% chances of
rain remain in the grids for now. Trends in the tropics will need to
be monitored over the coming week, as the strength of any system
that develops (that is, if anything develops at all) will determine
how much tropical moisture is able to push toward our area.
Regardless of precipitation chances, mid to high level cloud
coverage should stream into the area from the southwest late next
week, marking a change from the mostly sunny skies early on in the
long term forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Skies are clearing from northwest to southeast this morning, with
cloud cover lingering longest at KSJS. However, VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals for the duration of the TAF period.
Light north winds will increase especially at KSYM, KSME, and KLOZ
by 15z this morning with gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range through
mid-afternoon before diminishing and becoming light and variable
from sunset onward.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 11:06 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409071506-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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