IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 1:55 PM EDT
523
FXUS63 KIND 051755
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
155 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm today
- Frontal passage tonight into Friday will bring chances for showers
- Potential for sub-40 degree temperatures in rural areas Saturday
night
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Early This Morning...
Some patchy lower clouds will continue to drift across the area with
some weak lift. Wouldn't rule out some patchy light fog in the
southwest where dewpoints are higher.
Today...
Southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue to
bring warm air into central Indiana. The early morning patchy lower
clouds will mix out, but then cumulus will pop back up this
afternoon. Mostly sunny to occasionally partly cloudy skies will be
the rule across the area.
Temperatures will peak in the middle and upper 80s. Given the
instability that builds, wouldn't rule out an isolated shower this
afternoon, but odds are too low to mention.
Tonight...
The evening will be quiet with the cold front staying northwest of
central Indiana.
Overnight, the cold front will move in from the northwest. Surface
convergence along the front itself is weak, and deep moisture is
lacking. Meanwhile, better forcing will remain to the northwest of
the front, closer to the upper trough and the arrival of the colder
air itself.
Thus, this cold front will be an anafront, with better chances for
rain behind the front itself. The overall moisture behind the front
is not impressive though.
Given the above and the expected time of the system, will go with
some chance PoPs overnight, mainly in the northwest half of the
area.
Lows will be in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Friday.
On Friday a seasonably strong upper level low will be moving into
the Great Lakes region with a surface front expected to pass through
Indiana during the daytime hours. Models have been quiet consistent
with little run to run variability within the deterministic or
ensembles regarding the timing and track of the front with the main
remaining question mark being how far southwest the line of showers
associated with the front will stretch.
Moisture profiles look lackluster at best, so only expecting a
narrow axis of rain along the front where forcing will be locally
maximized. Model sounding show little to no instability with this
frontal passage, so even a few rumbles of thunder looks to be
unlikely. With the front expected to pass through the morning hours,
the high for the day will likely occur earlier in the day, so have
made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures going into the
evening.
Current thoughts are that the best chance for accumulating
precipitation of more than just a few hundredths will be from around
Bloomington to points to the north and east with areas to the south
and west likely to only have a few light showers. Even with that,
only spots that see the strongest showers of the day are likely to
see more than a couple of tenths of an inch.
Saturday Through Wednesday.
The remainder of the long term period looks dry although there may
be a few showers that linger into Saturday with the potential for a
weak wave on the backend of the frontal passage. Sharp surface
pressure gradients will bring strong CAA near the surface with highs
struggling to rise above 70 Saturday afternoon. Those sharp pressure
gradients will also bring breezy conditions with occasional wind
gusts to 25 mph. Temperatures Saturday night may drop into the low
to mid 40s across north central Indiana with clear skies, calm
winds, and dry surface air creating ideal radiational cooling
conditions. In these ideal conditions, temperatures usually end up on
the lowest end of model guidance which puts the upper 30s in play
for areas near Muncie looks quite possible. While a frost looks
unlikely, highly localized areas could drop into the mid 30s which
could damage highly sensitive vegetation.
Another breezy and colder than normal day expected for Sunday as the
parent low pressure system continues to remain parked across the
Great Lakes Region as strong ridging off the East Coast blocks the
progression of the low. The low will finally begin to push eastwards
going into Monday, but expect continued cool and dry conditions to
continue into much of the early portions of next week as the upper
level flow remains locked into the northwesterly pattern and the
surface flow begins to stagnate. Temperatures will gradually
moderate going towards the middle of the week as high pressure
remains dominant across central Indiana with highs returning to the
mid 80s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings possible midday tomorrow along cold front and with
the rain
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period with
southwesterly winds to start. Diurnally driven clouds will last
through sunset along with a shift to more southwesterly winds. Cloud
coverage will increase through the period as an approaching cold
front moves through the area tomorrow. Ahead of the cold front could
also be rain showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder within
central Indiana. Coverage of the rain is expected to be fairly
scattered so have kept mention in the TAFs to VCSH and -SHRA. by
midday tomorrow, could also see cloud decks dropping to MVFR for a
few hours with these showers.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...KF
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 1:55 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409051755-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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