IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 1:11 PM EDT
826
FXUS63 KIWX 011711
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
111 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler and less humid through Tuesday.
- Warmer and dry Wednesday and Thursday.
- Low chances for showers late this week followed by cool
weather this upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Early this morning a large upper low was over Hudson Bay with
an upper level trof extending south of the low into the upper
Great Lakes region. A cold front was moving south from this
system over Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. The front will move
south today and bring gusty winds prompting a high swim risk
over southeast Lake Michigan beaches. The lower and mid layers
of the atmosphere appear much too dry to generate any rain per
GFS BUFKIT soundings.
Cool weather will briefly settle in for Labor Day with GFS and
EC 850 MB temperatures near +8C supporting highs in the lower
to mid 70s. Lows by Tuesday morning will be in the mid to upper
40s. Diurnal rises from chilly morning lows are expected to
reach 30 degrees. Upper level ridging will return with much
warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a very
uncertain period late this week. For now, kept the model blend
rain chances Thursday night and Friday followed by cool weather
Saturday, but confidence in any solution is very low at this
time. Even the spectral models are having issues in handling the
large scale mass fields and the energy on the east side of the
upper ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
A cold front is located over KFWA at this hour, bringing in
scattered clouds as it passes through the area. VFR ceilings
will persist all day. Breezy northwesterly winds persist
through 00Z tonight as an large area of high pressure sinks
south over much of the central CONUS. We are on the easterly
side of the high pressure, and the tight pressure gradient
between this system and the departing low pressure over the
Northeast is creating wind gusts of up to 25 kts today. Winds
diminish after sunset and clouds will clear out as well.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Johnson
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 1:11 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409011711-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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