LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 6:35 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...
573
FXUS63 KLMK 041035
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
635 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated to scattered showers are possible Friday afternoon
and evening as a cold front passes through.
* Gorgeous weather expected for the weekend as strong high pressure
sits over our area, with temperatures in the 70s and low humidity
for both Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
Sfc high pressure will be over New England today, which will
continue to support mostly dry conditions for the area. Cirrus cloud
cover will continue to stream overhead today, gradually shifting
southward by late afternoon or evening. Partly cloudy skycover should
be more likely north of the Ohio River this evening, but better
clearing will continue later tonight. A slight increase in WAA and
thicknesses will support sfc temps to be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The inverted sfc
trough will remain situated nearly parallel to the Ohio River today,
which is where we'll have an axis of slightly higher low level
moisture return. Some of the CAMs continue to spark off very
isolated showers west of I-65 later this morning and early
afternoon. Overall coverage and chances for measurable precip are
low enough to keep a silent PoP going, so will limit PoPs to around
10% in our western half of the CWA until late afternoon.
Dry weather continue tonight, with the upper cloud deck departing to
the south, leading to clearing skycover from north to south.
Overnight improvements to our skycover could result in a somewhat
tricky temperature forecast for tonight, with some areas having
better radiation cooling than others. Generally we'll have readings
in the lower 60s, though some areas could even get down into the
upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
Thursday - Thursday Night...
Dry conditions continue into Thursday as the western fringes of
surface high pressure hold over our area, and the upper pattern
remains unremarkable. Notable troughing will be digging across the
north central CONUS by this time, but won't really begin to
influence our sensible weather until later in the day on Friday.
Given the dry and mostly sunny conditions for Thursday, temps should
be back above normal with peak values in the 86 to 91 degree range.
Friday - Saturday Morning...
Friday starts off dry, however the aforementioned shortwave trough
will be digging into the region. Meanwhile, a surface cold front
trailing from an eastern Great Lakes surface low will approach.
Currently, it looks like the best forcing associated with the mid to
upper levels will be north and east of our area, so more confidence
for more widespread shower/storm coverage is up there. In addition,
the positively tilted nature of this trough will not allow for the
typical deep moisture return (Gulf of Mexico source) ahead of it, so
our region may end up more moisture starved. Given the antecedent
dry conditions in place, that is not a great combo for a beneficial
rain. Forecast soundings for Friday afternoon/evening show very dry
low levels. As a result, coverage looks to be more widely scattered
over our area, with some model camps more impressed than other with
coverage chances.
The upper system closes off over the Great Lakes later Friday night
into Saturday morning, with the trough axis lingering over our
region until early Saturday. As a result, will keep pops in for at
leas the first part of Saturday before drying out in the post-
frontal regime.
Highs on Friday should warm into the upper 80s and low 90s for most.
A fairly dramatic cool down then takes place behind the cold front
with highs only in the in the 70s for Saturday.
Saturday Afternoon - Tuesday...
Dry weather returns ( or remains :/ ) for the second half of the
weekend into early next week. Strong surface high pressure builds in
and settles near our region during this time. Meanwhile dry NW flow
aloft will define the upper pattern. Temps will be notably cooler
with highs in the 70s on Saturday/Sunday, around 80 on Monday, and
back to the low and mid 80s by Tuesday. Looking for some cool, crisp
mornings? Sunday through Tuesday mornings will feature lows in the
40s and low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
High level cirrus will continue to stream across the region
throughout the forecast period, along with some sct-bkn mid level
clouds as well. VFR flight cats are expected for today, with light
and variable winds that occasionally favor a SSW direction early in
the day, then a SE direction later in the day. The upper level
cloud deck will eventually begin to erode and become more SCT by
this evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 6:35 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409041035-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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