BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 3:22 AM EDT
594
FXUS61 KBOX 290722
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
322 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry and noticeably cooler weather prevails today and
Friday behind yesterday/s cold frontal passage. Cold frontal
passage late Saturday night will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Conditions dry out the
second half of Sunday through mid/late next week with slightly below
normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
320 AM Update...
* Partly sunny & cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s, but only
upper 60s to the lower 70s on the immediate eastern MA coast
Shortwave energy was resulting in some mid level cloudiness early
this morning and a even a few spotty sprinkles...but this should
come to an end by mid morning. Large high pressure over Quebec will
result in a beautiful day but noticeably cooler temps. We do expect
partial sunshine today mixed in with some mid level cloudiness
especially across the interior. The northeast low level flow will
result in noticeably cooler high temps compared to yesterday. Highs
will be held in the 70s for most locations...perhaps flirting with
80 in the lower CT River Valley. However...onshore low level flow
will keep high temps in the upper 60s to the lower 70s along the
very immediate eastern MA coast and that is about 20 degrees cooler
than yesterday/s high temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Points...
* Cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to the middle 50s with
the low risk of a spot shower distant interior
* Plenty of sunshine & beautiful Fri and highs again in the 70s
Tonight...
A mid level shortwave will move across the region tonight...but
there is very limited low level forcing or moisture.
Therefore...think the main impact will be some scattered mid level
cloudiness tonight across the interior. That being said...we can not
rule out the low risk of a brief spot shower or two across parts of
western MA/CT. Regardless...generally dry weather is on tap tonight
and it will be cool. Overnight low temps should bottom out mainly in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s.
Friday...
Large high pressure moves east into the Canadian Maritimes Friday.
This should allow for plenty of sunshine and another beautiful day
of weather Friday. High temps should again be mainly in the 70s and
perhaps approaching 80 in parts of the lower CT River Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* Return to Summer temperatures and humidity this weekend with
dewpoints climbing towards 70F
* Best chance for widespread rain comes late Saturday into early
Sunday morning as cold front approaches
* Dry and seasonably cool conditions will start the shortened work
week
Saturday and Sunday...
Mid level ridging that dominates the synoptic pattern through Friday
will break down as we head into the weekend and broad trough begins
to push south over southern Quebec. Prefrontal southwest flow will
advect mild, humid air into southern New England and PWATs climb in
excess of 2"; translating to dewpoints either side of 70F.
Cold front begins pushes in from the west late Saturday, so while
most of the daylight hours remain dry, some showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible across our western zones by late
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of
southern New England, becoming most expansive overnight Saturday,
before the front becomes hung up a bit around the Cape and Islands
on Sunday; which will result in some lingering shower activity for
SE MA and RI through 12-15Z Sunday.
Subsidence behind the frontal passage looks to have a significant
impact on the potential for rain the second half of Sunday even as a
weak front/trough swings through late Sunday. So, have deviated
slightly from the NBM to cut pops the second half of Sunday into
early Monday, with little to no additional precipitation expected.
In terms of total precipitation, guidance has continued to back of
24 hour QPF estimates, even with the potential for embedded downpour
activity across western MA/CT thanks to aforementioned PWATs near 2".
Ensemble 24 hour probabilities of 0.5" of QPF from Saturday
afternoon to Sunday afternoon have dropped to around 30-40% for far
northwestern MA, and to near zero along and southeast of the I-95
corridor. In fact, total QPF for the eastern half of the CWA may
struggle to hit 0.1"!
Monday and Beyond...
Mid level troughing will be seaward of southern New England by early
Monday morning, with dry conditions expected for the holiday. While
500mb heights begin to build, we expect an early taste of fall as a
low level cold pool develops with 850mb temps dropping to between 3-
5C by 12Z Tuesday. High temperatures will mainly range in the low to
mid 70s, gradually warming into the upper 70s by late week as cold
pool shifts east. Overall, it's looking like a pretty stellar start
to September with lower dewpoints, in the 50s and sunny skies!
Rain chances look dismal for much of southern New England for the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...
Today...High Confidence.
VFR today other than some localized brief patchy MVFR ceilings
near the southeast New England coast early this morning. NE
winds becoming ENE at 5 to 15 knots.
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. Calm/light NE winds.
Friday...High Confidence.
VFR. E winds 5 to 10 knots becoming SE in the afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA likely,
slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night through Labor Day: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High Confidence.
High pressure over Quebec was resulting in some brief NE wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots early this morning. This high pressure
system should push further south today allowing winds to
gradually diminish...but still may see a few gusts up to 20
knots in the southern waters into mid afternoon with some chop
over the waters.
Tonight and Friday...High Confidence.
High pressure across Quebec shifts east into the Maritimes
tonight and Friday. This allows for winds to shift to more of an
E direction at 10 to 15 knots...but winds/seas should remain
below small craft advisory thresholds.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Labor Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/KS
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...Frank/KS
MARINE...Frank/KS
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 3:22 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408290722-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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