LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 7:05 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...
381
FXUS63 KLMK 011105
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
705 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon
across south-central Kentucky. Localized gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible.
* Cooler temperatures, compared to the recent heat wave, expected
for next week. A reinforcing shot of still cooler conditions
possible next weekend.
* Occasional scattered showers possible mid-late week, especially
late Wednesday into Thursday, though the chances of widespread
heavy rain are low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
It is a warm and muggy start to September and meteorological fall,
with temps early this morning in the low 70s, and muggy dewpoints in
the upper 60s and low 70s. This humid airmass is lingering due to a
quasi-stationary boundary that is bisecting the region near the Ohio
River, which is also supporting isolated showers and occasionally a
few rumbles of thunder early this morning. With these close dewpoint
depressions, and recent showers saturating soils, low stratus and
patchy fog is possible for the morning hours. Conditions should
improve by late morning.
This boundary will slowly sag southward through the morning hours,
but should become diffuse by the afternoon somewhere across the
Commonwealth. Isolated to scattered showers and some garden variety
storms are expected to continue throughout today ahead (south) of
the boundary, with the best chances being south of the Western
Kentucky/Bluegrass Pkwys. Model sounding do indicate some
instability developing this afternoon in a humid environment across
southern Kentucky, though wind shear will be weak enough to limit
severe potential. PWATs over 2 inches will promote heavy rain rates,
which could pose a minor localized flooding issue in the Lake
Cumberland region if storm motions are slow enough. To the north for
the boundary, dry conditions and mostly sunny skies expected today
for southern Indiana and Kentucky counties within the Ohio River
vicinity.
By late afternoon or early evening, a second cold front boundary
will be approaching the region from the north as an upper trough
pivots across the Great Lakes. This boundary will essentially cut
off the rain chances for our region by this evening, with CAA and
drier air filtering in. The boundary should be along the Ohio River
by 00z, and continuing southward through the overnight hours. Temps
for tonight will cool to the upper 50s across southern Indiana, and
low 60s for Kentucky. We should be entirely post-frontal before
sunrise Monday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Dry, cool air advection will be ongoing Monday morning via
northeasterly low-level flow. Sfc high pressure over IA/WI shifts
east across Lake Michigan and will help provide us a beautiful Labor
Day. Expect plenty of sunshine with afternoon highs in the 79-84
degree range. Cool NE flow continues Monday night into Tuesday.
Tuesday morning will be the coolest of the week with lows in the low
to mid 50s in most areas. A couple warmer urban environments may
only dip into the upper 50s. Tuesday remains dry. Look for partly
sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Beyond Tuesday, high pressure gradually drifts east off the New
England coast as a weak upper level shortwave trough ejects
northeast from the southern Plains. Developing return flow will
supply gradually increasing moisture back into the Lower OH Valley
through the middle portion of the week. At this point, Tuesday night
and perhaps also Wednesday should remain mostly dry. Afternoon temps
on Wednesday will likely climb into the mid/upper 80s.
Wednesday night through Thursday night features low rain chances.
Forcing is rather weak, and we'll likely see a lull in scattered
rain chances once the weak shortwave passes off to the east. At
least isolated to scattered precip looks possible Friday into
Saturday as a stronger upper level trough digs southeast across
Ontario and the Great Lakes. This potent wave digs as far south as
the Ohio Valley, with a stout cold front likely to sweep through
from NW to SE early next weekend. This should be followed by the
coolest air of the season so far - lows in the 40s/50s by Sunday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 704 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Quasi-stationary front continues to sit across the region this
morning, which is resulting in some low to mid level clouds. These
ceilings could briefly drop to MVFR, but confidence on how long
these ceilings hold remains low. Regardless, we should see
improvements to solid VFR by late morning, which will prevail for
the rest of the forecast period as well. For this afternoon, a few
isolated showers and storms will be possible, but was not confident
enough to include any mention in TAFs at this time. SKC returns by
this evening, with winds primarily from the north.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CJP
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 7:05 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409011105-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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