MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 3:52 PM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
815
FXUS64 KMOB 262052
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
352 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
An upper level ridge will continue across the area through the
period. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will remain centered over the
Mid-Atlantic states. This deep layer ridging will act to suppress
most convection across the area along with keeping temps above
normal. Precipitable water values climb above two inches near the
coast by Tuesday afternoon which will allow for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours in those
areas. The northern half of the area will remain dry and hot as a
drier airmass remains. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s
inland to upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will again
be in the low to mid 90s. /13
.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
For the first half of the extended, our region will be located in
between two upper lows; one over Texas and the other near the
Florida Peninsula. At the same time, a mid-level ridge, along with
high pressure at the surface, expands from the western Atlantic
into the southeastern US. Although ample moisture will be in
place, overall forcing looks rather limited given the ridging in
place as well as no notable surface features moving into the
region other than the typical diurnal seabreeze circulation. Due
to this, have tapered PoPs to around 30 percent for our northern
counties and to around 50 percent for our coastal counties. If
this trend continues, would not be surprised to see PoPs lowered
even further through Friday.
Models diverge as we get into the weekend, with the GFS suggesting
that the pattern described above lingers into Monday, whereas the
Euro calls for a weakening of these features and a strengthening of
an upper ridge over the western Gulf. If the GFS solution pans out,
expect the forecast to remain rather similar to the forecast for the
first half of the period. The Euro solution, on the other hand,
looks to be the wetter of the two solutions due to northwesterly
upper-level flow setting up, helping to send multiple embedded
shortwaves into the area. Due to this uncertainty, maintained a
general 40-50% rain chance across the local area.
Highs each day will top out in the low to mid 90s. At this time,
heat indices in general should stay just under Heat Advisory
criteria, thanks to the potential for some modest dew point mixing
given the ridging aloft, although a few localized spots reaching the
108-110 degree range cannot be ruled out. Lows will be in the low to
mid 70s. A Low risk of rip currents continues through the end of the
week. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 94 75 92 75 93 75 92 / 10 40 20 50 20 50 20 50
Pensacola 77 92 78 91 77 92 78 91 / 20 40 30 50 20 50 20 50
Destin 78 91 79 91 79 92 78 90 / 30 50 30 40 20 40 20 40
Evergreen 70 95 73 95 72 96 73 95 / 0 30 10 30 10 30 10 30
Waynesboro 70 97 73 95 72 97 72 95 / 0 10 10 30 10 40 10 30
Camden 70 94 73 95 73 95 73 94 / 0 10 10 30 10 30 10 30
Crestview 73 93 73 94 72 96 72 94 / 20 40 20 50 20 40 10 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 3:52 PM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408262052-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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