MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 5:02 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
512
FXUS64 KMOB 241002
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Pleasant autumn-esque conditions persist this morning with
temperatures hovering in the 60s and 70s while dewpoints crater
into the 50s and 60s. Yes, there are a few inland sites with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s this morning. Enjoy the dryness
to the air as it won't last much longer.
Showers continue to drift westward across our Gulf waters this
morning, similar to yesterday morning. This activity will stay
offshore this morning and will not impact inland locations, although
the showers may briefly slide across parts of Ft Morgan and Dauphin
Island before 11z this morning. This activity will persist through
mid-morning before it slides out of our coastal waters again. The
showers are associated with the weak upper low/trough that is
hovering over the northern Gulf this morning. Throughout the
weekend, the low/trough will retrograde westward across the north
central Gulf underneath a sprawling ridge aloft. As the ridge builds
out of the Southern Plains to the northeast and the low/trough
drifts westward, our northeasterly winds aloft will gradually turn
more easterly overnight tonight into Sunday. Down at the surface,
the local area remains on the southwest periphery of a high draped
over the Northeast and Atlantic which will keep winds easterly
through the weekend. Dry air continues to get dragged into the area
this morning with PWATs remaining below 1.5 inches through at least
mid-day today. Some of the high-res guidance indicates another slug
of dry-ish air filtering into the region overnight, especially
across inland communities. This pattern keeps the majority of our
land areas dry this weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers
and storms to develop late this afternoon through early this
evening, mainly across northwest Florida. As the axis of the upper
trough/low retrogrades westward on Sunday, the chance for showers
and storms also shifts into coastal Alabama and southeast
Mississippi during the afternoon hours (still anticipate only
isolated coverage). That said, given the proximity of the upper low
to our Gulf waters, rain chances will remain higher over the water
through the weekend, especially in the overnight and early morning
hours.
Beach Note: The risk of rip currents is now HIGH along the coastal
Alabama and northwest Florida beaches TODAY. Surf heights remain
around 3-4 feet today with low tide expected in the afternoon hours.
The surf should gradually decrease through the late afternoon hours
and conditions at local beaches should improve late this afternoon.
Most, if not all, of our local beaches upgraded to red flags
yesterday in similar conditions and the RCMOS guidance also
indicates a brief HIGH risk period through early afternoon today.
The risk is expected to be MODERATE tonight through Monday night.
07/mb
&&
.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024
A large upper ridge centered over Kansas/Missouri which extends to
across the southeast states gradually becomes centered over the
east central states through Wednesday then looks to weaken a bit
through Friday. A surface ridge over the southeastern states
slowly shifts to become oriented mostly across the northern Gulf
coast through Wednesday and likewise weakens somewhat in the
process. Subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge will
suppresses convective development over interior areas through
Tuesday while closer to the coast isolated to scattered
development is possible each day, mainly with the sea breeze. The
pattern allows for improving deep layer moisture to be ushered
into the area Wednesday into Friday, especially with the weakening
of the upper ridge. With the convective environment slowly
becoming more favorable, have gone with slight chance to chance
pops for the southern half of the area on Wednesday (dry further
inland) which trends to chance pops for essentially the entire
area by Friday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower
to mid 90s then trend a bit warmer to mostly in the mid 90s for
Wednesday through Friday, with some locations reaching the upper
90s. May see some spots near the coast potentially reach heat
advisory criteria of 108 late in the week. Lows Monday night
range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid/upper 70s at the
coast then slowly trend a bit milder through Thursday night to
range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast.
A moderate risk of rip currents on Monday will be followed by a
low risk for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024
High-end exercise caution conditions persist across the Gulf waters
this morning with gusts up to 25 knots. Exercise caution conditions
will persist through early this afternoon with another round of near
exercise caution conditions expected again tonight. Chances for
showers and storms remain higher in the overnight hours and should
persist through early each morning. 07/mb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 92 73 93 72 94 72 95 75 / 10 10 20 10 20 10 20 10
Pensacola 90 76 92 75 93 76 93 78 / 20 30 20 10 20 10 30 10
Destin 89 76 93 77 93 77 93 78 / 40 40 20 10 20 20 30 20
Evergreen 92 69 93 68 95 69 96 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 92 69 94 67 95 68 97 69 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 91 68 92 67 93 69 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 91 70 94 70 95 72 95 72 / 20 20 10 0 20 10 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 5:02 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408241002-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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