LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 3:48 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
647
FXUS64 KLIX 232048
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
348 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024
A weak surface trough, upper low, and associated moisture plume
will move westward through the northern Gulf over the weekend.
This will result in a gradual increase in moisture across the
local area and a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly across coastal SE LA and Gulf waters. Farther inland,
expect Saturday to be another dry day owing to the area's closer
proximity to the retreating upper level high. By Sunday the high
should have retreated far enough to allow at least isolated
afternoon showers and storms to develop (fingers crossed).
Expect a gradual warming trend of a degree or two per day in the
overnight lows as the air mass continues to moderate. Afternoon
highs will be fairly steady, topping out in the low to mid 90s
each day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024
No significant changes in the forecast thinking through the long
term. As the week starts, the local area will be located on the
southern periphery of an upper high centered over the middle
Mississippi Valley. A westward-moving trough is still forecast to
move through the central Gulf during the Tuesday/Wednesday time
frame. The proximity of the high will continue to keep rain
chances lower over interior areas than coastal areas. Forecast
generally calls for 20-30 percent POPs along/north of I-10/12
through midweek with 40-50 percent POPs south of the corridor.
Forecast confidence during the latter part of the work week is a
bit lower owing to uncertainties in the timing and depth of an
upper trough during that time frame. While the operational GFS
contains much flatter upper trough than the Euro, their
respective ensemble solutions aren't actually that far off from
each other. The ensemble means are broader than their respective
operational runs due to timing differences between the members,
but overall, both ensemble means indicate a somewhat well defined
upper trough extending into the middle Mississippi Valley as it
moves through late Thursday into Friday. Given the decent
agreement of the ensemble means, see reason to make any significant
adjustments to the NBM guidance, and the resultant forecast calls
for scattered showers and storms both Thursday and Friday as the
upper ridging shifts in response to the approaching trough.
Daytime highs will continue in the low to mid 90s through much of
the work week, with morning lows continuing to gradually warm into
the mid to upper 70s most locations as low level moisture
increases. Thankfully, afternoon heat index values don't look to
rise much above 105 degrees or so through the work week so we're
not currently looking at any oppressive heat.
Regarding rainfall through the period... With only isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the
week, rainfall totals will generally be fairly low, especially
for inland areas. A few places will luck out and could see
meaningful rain, but overall, not expecting much in the way of
appreciable rainfall through the next 7 days along/north of the
I-10/12 corridor. These areas are already highlighted as
experiencing D0 (abnormally dry) conditions on the latest version
of the drought monitor, and would not be surprised to see further
expansion or possible worsening with next Thursday's update -
especially since the higher rain chances are during the latter
part of the week and the drought monitor is updated based on
rainfall only through Tuesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period under the influence
of high pressure. A few showers will be possible in coastal areas,
but dry air aloft should keep the thunderstorm threat mostly at
bay. Have included a VCSH group at HUM where probabilities are
highest, but elsewhere, probability of impacts at the terminals
is low enough to preclude mention at this time. Winds will
generally be east or southeast in the 8-12 knot range during the
day, and generally light overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Light to moderate winds generally from the east will persist
through the first part of the work week. Exercise caution
headlines will remain in effect through tonight and will likely
need to be extended through tomorrow for portions of the Gulf
waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will also
be possible each day through, leading to locally higher winds and
seas. Rain chances will generally be highest on Saturday and
Tuesday as weak disturbances move through the northern Gulf.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 67 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 20
BTR 72 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 30
ASD 71 92 74 93 / 0 10 20 30
MSY 78 92 78 92 / 10 20 20 40
GPT 72 91 75 92 / 10 20 30 40
PQL 72 92 73 95 / 10 30 30 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 3:48 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408232048-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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