JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 2:01 PM EDT
393
FXUS63 KJKL 261801 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
201 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot weather is forecast for several days, with near record
temperatures Tuesday through Friday.
- A modest cool-down is expected for the weekend.
- Our next area wide potential for rain is Friday into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT MON AUG 26 2024
Forecast highs remain on target, as a few locations have already
flirted with 90 degrees early this afternoon. Did include a bit
more sky cover through the next few hours, as few to scattered
cumulus have developed over eastern Kentucky since just before
noon.
UPDATE Issued at 1039 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2024
Fog has burned off within the river valleys this morning.
Temperatures are running a bit ahead of forecast in some
locations, and have made some minor adjustments to the hourly
readings through this afternoon to account for these trends in
observations. Forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s look
on target, with local BNA sounding still showing some pretty dry
air aloft to mix down for the afternoon, keeping higher heat
indices in check for now. Accordingly, did adjust some of the dew
points down a bit more based on that data. Updates have been sent
out.
UPDATE Issued at 743 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2024
The forecast is running on track and no adjustments are necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2024
Benign weather will continue. Strong upper level high pressure
will be centered over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
valleys through the period, while surface high pressure remains
just to our east. Our low level flow will continue to emanate out
of the lower level high and keep moisture advection to a minimum.
Low level temperature advection will also be near neutral.
Subsidence under the upper level high and a lack of other features
aloft will keep our skies mainly clear. Sunshine each day will
work to warm/modify the air mass, and dew points will also show a
slow increase as the air mass modifies.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2024
The forecast period begins with an upper-level shortwave moving
through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a surface low is present
with frontal boundaries extending northeastward into southern Canada
and back west into the Central Plains. This system will trigger a
few MCSs that'll try to work their way southeast into the CWA but
will decay north of the Ohio River. The surface low will shift
eastward through the day Wednesday bringing slight chances (~20%) of
showers and storms mainly to areas along and north of the Mountain
Parkway. Along with the chances for showers/storms, temperatures are
forecast to climb into the mid-90s with heat indices approaching 100
degrees. Showers and storms will taper off overnight Wednesday but
Thursday brings about another day of near-record breaking
temperatures and heat indices near or above 100 degrees. Showers
will be possible again Thursday afternoon, mainly for areas of far
eastern Kentucky, but will taper off toward sunset.
Attention turns westward to better chances of widespread showers and
thunderstorms. An upper-level wave is expected to move into south-
central Canada Thursday morning with surface low development
occurring at the same time. As this feature shifts eastward, the
trailing cold front is expected to approach the area and be on the
doorstep of the CWA by Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead of
the front show meager severe weather indices as shear for sustaining
thunderstorms are is lacking; however, enough lift from the front
will promote thunderstorms but confidence in widespread severe
weather is largely lacking. The front is forecast to stall out over
the area which will keep shower and thunderstorm chances through the
remainder of the period but PoP chances are around 20-30% each day
through Monday.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by near to record
breaking heat with near heat advisory heat indices. Wednesday
through Friday are forecast to be some of the hottest days of the
year with highs in the mid to upper-90s and heat indices ranging
from 100 to 105 in a few places. Overnight lows will be in the upper-
60s to low-70s. As the cold front, mentioned above, moves through
the area, showers and storms will be possible with temperatures
falling 10 degrees post-frontal Saturday through the end of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON AUG 26 2024
VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the majority of
the time, as high pressure remains in place. Isolated to
scattered cumulus, ranging from 4-5k feet agl, will diminish by
dusk. IFR or lower valley fog will develop once again overnight.
Some spotty MVFR may affect KSME and KSYM between 10 and 12z, but
there is not enough confidence to include a mention at this time.
Winds will remain light and variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 2:01 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408261801-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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