ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 9:14 PM EDT
888
FXUS61 KILN 260114
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
914 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure centered east of the region will
keep dry and hot conditions across the area. Towards midweek
there will start to be at least low chances of showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Ongoing fcst remains on track as a few Cu/AC continue to
percolate about the area. Some cirrus will also spread into the
region from the NW through daybreak, but otherwise mainly clear
skies will prevail. Temps will dip into the mid to upper 60s by
sunrise, with some patchy river valley fog possible amidst calm
winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Aforementioned mid level ridge will continue to expand slowly
northeast through the short term period. This should keep our
region dry with temperatures continuing to creep upward. Highs
on Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s. But with afternoon
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, heat index values will be at
or just slightly higher than the air temperature, so heat
headlines will not be issued. It will be a little warmer Monday
night with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 ridge heights will be maximized over the Ohio Valley
Tuesday/Wednesday, leading to abnormally hot temperatures. The
most extreme height anomalies at 500mb and 850mb remain just to
our west across portions of Iowa/Missouri/Illinois, which is
where the greatest potential exists for record breaking
temperatures. While temperatures will be very hot in our CWA
(mid-90s for most on Tuesday/Wednesday and perhaps even
Thursday), our records at CMH/DAY/CVG are all in the upper 90s.
The dry ground may aid in producing hotter near-surface
temperatures, so approaching these records is still certainly in
the realm of possibilities in our fa. Dewpoints will be more
marginal SE of I-71 (mid-60s), whereas locations NW of I-71 may
be more at risk of having dewpoints near/above 70, increasing
the heat index slightly more. Still some uncertainty on
potential for cloud debris and shower/storm development this
week, which could limit the overall heat index values depending
on timing/coverage. Nonetheless, there is still reasonable
confidence in hot daytime highs in the 90s with mild overnight
lows in the upper 60s to middle 70s through the work week. This
will add to the overall heat stress.
As we head into Friday, a cold front will begin to sink from
the NW. This boundary is more likely to approach late Friday
into Friday night based on latest guidance. This will lead to
better chances for showers/storms across our CWA. By Saturday, a
drop in temperatures will finally be observed, but still
expecting to trend slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patches of FEW/SCT VFR Cu/AC will percolate for an hour or two
past sunset before skies become mostly clear for the remainder
of the nighttime. A few cirrus will stream in from the NW from
time-to-time, becoming more widespread during the day. FEW/SCT
VFR diurnally-driven Cu will sprout about again by the
afternoon, with the best coverage focused near KCMH/KLCK and
points to the NE.
Light/VRB winds will prevail through daybreak before going more
out of the WSW at generally 5kts or less past 15z. With
light/calm winds through daybreak, there could be a little bit
of river fog, especially near KLUK. Have gone with some MVFR and
IFR VSBYs at the site, mainly between 08z-12z, to account for
potential.
There may be a few ISO SHRA that develop about the area after
00z Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 9:14 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408260114-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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