ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 9:42 PM EDT
789
FXUS61 KILN 250142
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
942 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Sprawling high pressure will continue to keep the area dry
through at least the early part of next week. Temperatures will
be above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A few patches of Cu continue to percolate about the area this
evening, and may do so from time-to-time through the near term
period. Some cirrus will also spill in from the NW as well
through daybreak, so it is not likely to be a completely clear
night in the local area. Temps tonight will be a few degrees
warmer than even last night's temps as lows will range from the
lower to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A mid level ridge will continue to slowly build northeast into
the western Great Lakes and lower/middle Ohio Valley. A weak
boundary, akin to a weak back door frontal boundary will sneak
into eastern Michigan/northeast Ohio/Lake Erie. That feature may
provide enough convergence for an afternoon/evening
shower/storm. This activity is expected to remain north and
northeast of our region. Thus, another day of mainly diurnally
driven cumulus with some mid and high level clouds mixed in from
time to time. It will continue to warm with highs in the upper
80s to the lower 90s and lows in the 65 to 70 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Omega blocking pattern in place across the CONUS to start the
extended forecast period. While the far eastern and western
portions of the US will be underneath some form of a H5 trough,
a large portion of the central US (including the Ohio Valley)
will be underneath this large scale ridge. This synoptic feature
will be the driver of anomalously hot temperatures through the
entirety of the work week.
Tuesday still has the strongest signal to be the hottest day of
the week based on ensemble guidance. Additionally, global
models push the ridge a bit further east which will promote the
potential for warmer temperatures. The hottest overall
temperatures across the CONUS will remain west of us where the
mean ridge axis aligns itself. Still, the Ohio Valley is
expected to reach the middle to upper 90s on Tuesday, with the
potential for several consecutive days in the middle 90s.
A dry forecast is anticipated through Tuesday, but will have to
monitor CAMs for any potential for diurnal PoPs. As we progress
into Wednesday, the H5 ridge dampens and thus leads to an
increasing potential for development of showers/storms and
increasing cloud coverage, especially across our northern
counties. PoPs will stick around through the end of the work
week along with the seasonably warm temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with the
lone exception being some possible MVFR VSBYs due to river
valley BR at KLUK during the predawn hours. But confidence on
this occurring remains rather low at this time.
Diurnally-driven VFR Cu will slowly dissipate within the first
hour or two of the TAF period before some FEW/SCT redevelopment
occurs once again beyond 15z. Some cirrus will drift to the SE
through the region from time-to-time as well. Winds will be
W/NW around 5 kts during the the day with mainly light to calm
winds overnight.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 9:42 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408250142-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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