PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 1:06 PM EDT
195
FXUS61 KPBZ 241706
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
106 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will maintain mostly dry weather into next
week. However, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday
and Monday. Temperatures trend up, around 10 degrees above
normal by the end of the weekend and through the first half of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions, light wind, mostly clear/sunny skies, and
above normal temperatures.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Surface high pressure over the NE CONUS will maintain dry
conditions, light winds and abundant sunshine today. Rising
heights and warming aloft along with plentiful insolation will
support warming temperatures into the mid 80s across much of the
region.
Increasing high clouds overnight with rising heights should keep
overnight temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weather continues, though isolated thunderstorms
are possible Sunday and Monday afternoon.
- Warm temperatures continue.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
An amplifying central CONUS ridge will maintain northwest flow
aloft through early next week. Rising heights and warm 850mb
temps near 18C should yield surface temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
above average.
While probabilities remain low, strong diurnal
heating Sunday and Monday afternoons in conjunction with weak
shortwave movement could lead to isolated shower/thunderstorm
development. Modeled mid-level lapse rates are poor given warm
mid-levels, and shear looks to be fairly weak, but low-end
probabilities exist for an isolated strong-to-severe storm each
afternoon. Morning CAM runs have been a bit more bullish with
precipitation chance, especially compared to global models, and
ML severe guidance shows a 1% chance for severe wind. As a
result, have introduced isolated thunderstorms to the forecast
for Sun/Mon afternoon. While both days are low probability,
Monday afternoon's environment appears to be more favorable for
severe, given better shear, greater instability, and improved
mid-level lapse rates.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperatures remain well above normal next week.
- Mainly dry conditions continue, with low-end precip chances
towards mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Upper ridging will shift east next week and begin to flatten as
the ridge axis crosses our region Tuesday into Wednesday. Zonal
flow and perhaps even weak troughing will allow additional low-
probability iso/sct showers Wed afternoon/evening as a weak cold
front passes. For now, have maintained only a slight chance
with PoPs generally 20% or less, but this may need to be
increased as confidence improves.
With the ridge axis progged to be centered more over the
eastern CONUS, area high temperatures will likely be pushing
90F in the PGH metro area by mid-week.NBM MaxT probabilities of
90F+ have increased to around 70-80% for the metro and eastern
Ohio... near 90% for downtown Pittsburgh and the river valleys.
Ensembles indicate amplifying central-CONUS ridging by late
week, renewing northwest flow over the area and cooling
temperatures a bit from previous days.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Patchy cirrus are all that are expected through tonight.
NBM/HREF show very low probability of restriction from fog
overnight. This makes sense given minimal impact this morning,
plus expected warmer overnight low temperatures.
On Sunday, improving low-level moisture and steep low-level
lapse rates will likely lead to scattered cumulus development by
late morning, with a light west-to-southwest wind. With
increasing instability, an isolated shower or storm cannot be
totally ruled out by 18Z. However, chances are too low for any
sort of TAF mention at this time.
.Outlook...
Hi-res ensemble models are more bullish than global models on
shower/thunderstorm potential Sunday afternoon/evening in
conjunction with weak shortwave movement. VFR and dry weather
will remain favored into next week, but low probability
scenarios like Sunday should be monitored in ensuing forecast
updates.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/88
AVIATION...CL
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 1:06 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408241706-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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