IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:09 PM EDT
101
FXUS63 KIWX 231709
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
109 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-One more seasonably cool day in store with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.
-Warmer and increasingly humid conditions begin to return this
weekend with heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s Monday and
Tuesday.
-Low confidence forecast for any chance of showers/storms
through Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
If you have been enjoying the cool starts to the day and very
comfortable afternoon highs, there is only 1 day left as more
seasonable heat and humidity begin to return this weekend. Highs in
the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s should bring heat indices in the
mid to upper 80s for the weekend and then into the 90s for the start
of the work week.
A few disturbances make an attempt to break down the ridging
somewhat, the first arriving Saturday night. Limited signals in
models of some widely scattered to scattered showers and storms
developing across E IA into W IL. Some solutions edge these east but
several also dive anything SE along the better theta-e gradient and
more favorable 850-300 mb thickness. While the likihood of any
measurable precip is probably less than 15% in far western parts of
the area Sat night, will keep a mention, but remove any chc pops and
trim eastern edge of the slgt chc area. Upper level ridging takes
hold Sun into Mon with a 598 dm high parked over Missouri by 00Z Mon
with a slow eastern shift into Tuesday. Models do diverge on
whether this holds strong or attempts to break down across the
north, with overall consensus leaning towards holding strong as
series of weaker waves to the west fail to dislodge the ridge
until maybe later next week. Model blends has pockets of slgt
chc pops mainly during the overnight hours Mon-Wed which doesn't
seem very logical given the best chance, if at all, should
reside during the afternoon and evening hours with a lack of
triggers overnight. Previous forecast was dry and given no
strong signal to warrant reintroducing pops at this stage will
go with a "dry" forecast. Did leave slgt chc to chc pops in for
Thur and Fri as ridging looks to break down enough for somewhat
better chances for mainly diurnally driven convection.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
High pressure remains over the Ohio Valley promoting VFR
conditions. Late tonight and through Saturday morning, high
clouds will be on the increase a bit as a disturbance currently
over the Kansas City area glides east atop the upper-level
ridge over the Southern Plains. Strong high pressure precludes
any rain or any ceiling restrictions.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Brown
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:09 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408231709-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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