PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 5:29 PM CDT
960
FXUS63 KPAH 222229
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
529 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A significant warming trend in temperatures is forecast now
through early next week, with highs climbing into the middle and
upper 90s by Monday and Tuesday.
- During the peak of the heat on Monday and Tuesday, heat index
value will reach the 100 to 105 degree range. Temperatures
will cool slightly thereafter, but will remain well below
normal.
- No notable rain is expected for at least the next seven days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024
Through Saturday, synoptic troughing across the eastern CONUS
will gradually yield to increasing H5 ridging shifting eastward
from the Central Great Plains. This will lead to a warming trend
in surface temperatures along with continued dry weather. High
temperatures Friday will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, and
the lower 90s on Saturday.
The ridge axis will become centered over the region during the
Sunday through Tuesday period. Temperatures at 850 mb will reach
into the 95-99th percentile during this time, around 22-26C.
This will yield high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s on
Sunday and the middle to upper 90s Monday and Tuesday. A
significant part of the region has not received measurable rain
in the last 14-21 days. This will lead to more substantial
sensible heat fluxes during the daytime hours. It's not out of
the question that isolated spots reach the 100 degree mark
during this time. Dew point values will stay in the lower to
middle 60s, so at this time, apparent temperatures look to stay
fairly close to the actual air temperature values, with forecast
peak values of 100-105 degrees forecast Monday and Tuesday.
By the middle of next week, the ridge axis will begin to
retreat to the west, allowing for temperatures to cool slightly,
but still remain well above normal. High temperatures are
currently forecast to reach the lower to middle 90s for the
Wednesday- Thursday period next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024
High pressure remains in control tonight, providing tranquil
weather conditions with light & variable winds. Cannot rule out
some patchy fog at KCGI after 09z, as an influx of
moisture/dewpoint advection may lead to a brief window of
exceeding the crossover temperature. Winds then veer to the
S-SE and will be light between 5-10 kts on Friday. A few mid-
level cu is possible in the afternoon, but overall mostly clear
skies are forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DW
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 5:29 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408222229-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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