IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 9:45 AM EDT
084
FXUS63 KIND 231345
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
945 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and temperatures increasing towards seasonal today.
- Above normal heat is expected Sunday onward, with excessive heat
possible Monday and Tuesday
- Low thunderstorm chances are included for Saturday night
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Forecast is in good shape this morning. Satellite imagery shows some
elevated smoke across the northern half of central Indiana, with
some lower clouds across the far south. High clouds were just west
of the area.
Tweaked sky cover based on the above, and allowed some more cirrus
to move in this afternoon. Skies will still be partly to mostly
sunny.
Observed soundings show very dry air aloft, and some of this will
mix down this afternoon. Made some adjustments to dewpoints this
afternoon based on this. The dry air and increasingly dry ground
will allow temperatures to warm nicely today with highs in the 80s
expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Rest of Tonight:
The current expectation is for the NE trough to begin is push
eastward in response to upstream low level WAA and modest AVA in
the entrance of the jet stream. This will take some time, but should
help promote clearing aloft with little to no cloud cover expected
through tonight into the morning. These clear skies should help once
again push overnight lows into the 50s
Friday/Today:
As mentioned, the trough along the east coast will make its way
towards the northern Atlantic today, as a warmer air masses pushes
into the Ohio Valley. 850mb temperatures will increase in response,
with a modest temperature gradient over the Indiana. This will allow
central Indiana to move towards seasonal temperatures with highs in
the mid 80s this afternoon. A few areas of far SW central Indiana
may approach the upper 80s as these areas will have a greater
influence of WAA over the mid Mississippi Valley.
Skies should remain fairly clear aloft with broad subsidence in
place. This broad, weak subsidence could allow for a shallow layer
of capped instability leading to the possibility of a few pockets of
diurnal cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Otherwise, very fair, and
mundane conditions are expected today.
Friday night's temperatures will be a bit more mild as central
Indiana becomes further encompassed by the warmer air mass. Skies
should remain mostly clear early, but should slowly become partly
cloudy as upper level cloud progress over the developing ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
The strong upper level ridging that has been bringing intense heat
to the southern Plains and Desert Southwest in recent days will
gradually shift northeast this weekend into next week, allowing for
a steady warmup back into above normal temperatures. This shift of
warm air with promote height rises aloft, further expanding the
above seasonal temperatures over the E CONUS. The warmest conditions
are likely to be Monday and Tuesday as the ridge axis centers over
the region, with high temperatures expected to reach the low to mid
90s across the Ohio Valley, including heat index values peaking in
the low 100s. The overall air mass will remain similar through most
of next work week, but increasing clouds and rain chances could
limit afternoon highs.
Convective activity is expected over western/northern portions of
the Midwest as early as Saturday, with this region of volatility
gradually shifting eastward with time. Initially, this will only
result in very low chances PoPs over NW central Indiana Saturday
night (Mostly just left over convective debris from an upstream MCS.
However, by Wednesday, Indiana will likely be on the far eastern
extend of thunderstorm potential, and thus low thunderstorm chances
have been included. Uncertainty on the pattern increases greatly by
the end of next week, therefor even with better parameter spacing
possible next Friday and Saturday, thunderstorm chances will remain
low until uncertainty decreases.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
Variable, but predominantly easterly 4-6kt winds will veer
towards SE/SSE this morning. A few diurnal cumulus are possible
this afternoon, otherwise skies will be mostly clear outside of
some passing cirrus. Winds overnight may become more easterly
again tonight once the PBL decouples, but will be light and vary
between 140 and 100 degrees. VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Updike
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 9:45 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408231345-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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