LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 3:03 AM EDT
480
FXUS63 KLMK 240703
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
303 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather expected over
the next 5-7 days. The highest temperatures are expected next
Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Weak NW flow aloft over the Ohio Valley as upper-level ridging
centered over Oklahoma continues to amplify. Low-level return flow
is just trying to get established as the sfc high has settled over
the southern Appalachians. A weak impulse in the flow aloft has
generated a mid-level cloud deck over eastern Missouri and western
Illinois, but that will continue to dive SSE and remain to our west.
Basically a temp forecast today as the returning summer heat
continues to build. Low-level thickness progs suggest max temps this
afternoon about 2 degrees warmer than Friday, putting most locations
into the lower 90s. Dewpoints still in the lower-mid 60s so the
humidity will remain manageable, and most areas will be able to dip
into the mid/upper 60s tonight, with the likely exception of the
Louisville urban heat island.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Broad area of high pressure will keep conditions mainly hot and dry
thorugh the upcoming week. Looking for high temperatures in the low
to mid 90s to start the week (about 5 degrees above normal) and
increasing to the mid to upper 90s by mid week (about 10 degrees
above normal). The hottest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday with
heat indices between 100 and 105. Heat at these levels will result
in heat illness symptoms for anyone without effective cooling or
adequate hydration. Avoiding direct sun while outdoors during the
peak heating times of the day (10 AM to 6 PM) will help reduce heat
exposure.
Dry weather is mainly expected with little precipitation chances
through the middle of the week. There is a weak front that could
come near the area on Wednesday for some slight chances for rain,
but the bigger chance will be Friday as a larger disturbance brings
a better chance for some light rain (albeit still not a great chance
and subject to change this far out). The front should bring high
temperatures closer to normal by the week's end in the upper 80s to
near 90.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period. Light
winds overnight will be mainly from the SE, then veering SW mid/late
morning Sat with speeds remaining below 10 kt. Sct high-based
diurnal Cu in the afternoon but ceilings remain unrestricted. After
the boundary-layer decouples with the loss of heating, expect light
south winds Sat evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...RAS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 3:03 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408240703-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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