LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 9:38 PM EDT ...Forecast Update...
083
FXUS63 KLMK 200138
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
938 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
...Forecast Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected
through Thursday. Above normal temperatures return this
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Quiet overnight in store for the region as surface high pressure
continues to slowly build into the area in the post-frontal regime.
Still hanging onto a few mid level clouds, but overall expect a
trend toward mostly clear overnight. Should keep a light N gradient
wind for most locations, but sheltered areas will likely still
decouple. As a result, kept the patchy river valley fog mention in
the forecast. Not overly confident given the dry air advection, but
decoupled areas wouldn't be as subject to that as the less sheltered
locations. So, it makes sense to keep the mention going.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Synoptically, meridional flow aloft is marked by longwave troughs
along each coastline with upper ridging anchored over the central
CONUS. At the surface, strong high pressure centered over central
Canada extends its influence southward all the way to the Gulf
Coast. This set up has resulted in deep NW flow through the column,
as evidenced from ACARS soundings out of SDF, and cold, dry air
advection at the surface, which will provide benign and markedly
cooler conditions across the CWA through the short term and well
into the long term forecast period. Current GOES-16 satellite shows
scattered diurnal cu development spread across the region, while
radar shows only a few very isolated returns across eastern KY.
Surface high pressure will continue to build throughout the short
term. Expect to see gusty northerly winds subside this evening while
skies clear out, allowing for great viewing conditions of the full
super blue moon tonight. HREF shows patchy fog development overnight
into the wee hours of Tuesday morning, but this should mostly remain
confined to low lying areas and river valleys. Mostly clear skies
are on the docket for tomorrow with NE winds occasionally gusting
into the 15-20mph range during the late morning and afternoon.
Expect Tuesday morning lows to bottom out in the mid 50s to around
60 with afternoon highs peaking in the mid 70s to around 80, which
is a good 10 degrees below climatological norms.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Blocking will set up over the CONUS with troughing over the east and
west, and strong ridging over the central CONUS. This blocking
pattern is expected to last into the weekend. This feature will lead
to continued northeasterly flow as high pressure is slowly building
into the region from the northwest, dry conditions, mostly sunny
skies, lower dew points, and below normal temperatures. Should be a
pleasant week, with fall-like conditions.
Later this week and into the weekend, ridging over the central CONUS
will shift east and push troughing off to the northeast of the
region. Increased heights over the Ohio Valley will lead to
increased temperatures through the weekend. By Sunday, we may see
slightly above normal temperatures. Although temperatures are
warming, we will likely not see a moisture return due to the surface
high pressure still centered in the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions will
remain through the long term, with mostly sunny skies and lower dew
points.
To summarize, little to no precipitation is expected in the long
term. With extended periods of dry weather, drought conditions are
possible.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
VFR conditions expected to prevail through this forecast cycle as
high pressure begins to build into the region behind yesterday's
cool front. Overall, surface winds will prevail out of the N to NNE
range. They will be light overnight, and then increase to the 7 to
12 mph range tomorrow. A few gusts up around 15 to 20 mph are likely
during tomorrow afternoon. Skies should be mostly sunny, although a
few cu around 5-6 k feet, and perhaps some late afternoon/early
evening upper clouds move in.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...CRG
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...BJS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 9:38 PM EDT ...Forecast Update... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408200138-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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