PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 6:35 AM CDT
890
FXUS63 KPAH 171135
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
635 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Triple digit heat index values are possible again today
across portions of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois,
and far western Kentucky.
- A chance of thunderstorms will be confined to the southern
border areas this morning, and then mainly to western Kentucky
late this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms with a
damaging wind threat will be possible late this afternoon and
this evening over west Kentucky. Torrential rainfall will be
possible with any thunderstorms through this evening.
- An isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in far eastern
portions of the Quad State Sunday afternoon.
- Drier, cooler, and comfortably less humid air is expected
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024
One more unseasonably hot and humid day is in store across the
Quad State today, then a cold front will move through this
evening, ushering in cooler and less humid air. With a decent
westerly breeze expected today ahead of the cold front,
temperatures may overachieve. We have a lot of mid 90s for highs
today over the southwest half of the area per the NBM, but a
few upper 90s cannot be ruled out. If the upper 90s occur, it
will likely be at the expense of the dewpoints mixing out more,
so maximum heat indices should still be in the 100 to 105 degree
range over the southwest half of the Quad State. Heat indices
should hold from 95 to 100 degrees over the rest of the region.
Thunderstorms early this morning will continue to stream
southeast or east southeast through western and southern
portions of southeast Missouri. They could eventually slide
eastward along the Kentucky/Tennessee border after daybreak.
Locally heavy rainfall, lightning and modestly gusty winds can
be expected with this morning's storms.
Convective initiation this afternoon is not terribly obvious,
with what passes for a surface boundary showing little if any
convergence. A common theme in guidance this morning is for
isolated to scattered convection developing on the back edge of
the better low-level moisture after 3 PM over west Kentucky and
possibly into far southeast Illinois. Coverage may increase as
the storms push south southeast toward the Tennessee border into
the evening. The storms should be south of the region by 10 PM.
Moderate instability is expected and shear should be sufficient
to lead to some updraft organization. Therefore a few severe
storms with mainly a damaging wind threat will be possible.
Although the storms will produce torrential rains, they will be
moving enough to limit the flooding risk.
As an upper-level trough amplifies southward from the Great
Lakes Sunday, a few showers or storms will be possible in far
eastern portions of the region. A brief heavy downpour and
lightning will be the primary concerns.
Northwest flow aloft and dry surface high pressure will persist
through the work week. The result will be lots of sunshine, well
below normal temperatures, and low humidity. A ridge of high
pressure aloft will attempt to build eastward toward the Quad
State by week's end, and that should lead to a warming trend.
Although temperatures may climb up to near normal levels
heading into next weekend, the humidity will remain quite low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024
West winds will gust 15-20kts through the day at all sites, then
become light tonight. Any convection this afternoon and evening is
likely to remain over west Kentucky to the south and east of
KOWB and KPAH. Winds may drop out at KMVN overnight and allow
for some MVFR fog formation. MVFR ceilings may slip south into
KEVV right at the end of the period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 6:35 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408171135-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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