IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 3:49 AM EDT
447
FXUS63 KIWX 150749
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
349 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and some storms possible Thursday, best chance
Thursday night.
- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms possible Friday
through Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening
hours.
- Remaining cooler and drier Monday through at least middle of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Disturbance from the west continues to inch eastward closer to
the western parts of the CWA this morning. With poor diurnal
timing and weak shear/instability any activity should remain
weak. This is backed up by the latest CAMs guidance. Pretty dry
mid levels will also have to be overcome as it pushes in which
may delay the onset of the precipitation. Winds will also be on
the increase with gusts around 20 mph at times this afternoon.
Clouds pushing in with this disturbance also looks to hamper
storm organization later this afternoon and evening and keep
storms pretty scattered out. High temperatures will range from
mid 70s for northwestern parts of the area and lower 80s for the
southeastern parts. As expected, the available instability will
only be around 500 J/kg this afternoon with the better
instability further west of the CWA looking to push in very late
tonight into tomorrow morning with MUCAPE values increasing to
around 1000-1500 J/kg and shear values around 25 to 30 knots,
this will allow for an uptick in showers/thunderstorm activity
early Friday.
Friday afternoon we will have a bit better dynamics as the
trough over the upper midwest drops southeast over the Great
Lakes region and an increased southwesterly flow with a warm
frontal push increasing surface moisture with dewpoints
rising into the 70s and high temperatures getting into the mid
80s for most locations. Winds will also increase slightly over
Thursday's winds with gusts by Friday afternoon around 25 mph.
MUCAPE values increase with values around 3000 J/kg and shear
increases to around 40 knots with the cold frontal passage.
This would make for a better environment for stronger storms
with a severe storm or two not out of the question. SPC
currently has the area under a marginal risk for severe storms
on Friday and the main threats would be wind and hail.
With a mostly westerly flow in place by Saturday and Sunday
cooler temperatures will arrive with highs in the 70s. Also, a
few weak disturbances will ripple through the flow and periods
of showers with a few thunderstorms possible mainly during the
afternoon hours both Saturday and Sunday. By Monday a northerly
upper air flow will take over and keep temperatures cooler (in
the 70s) and drier which at this time have no precipitation
through at least the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Some upper level energy west of the forecast area (extending
southeast of the main upper low nearing nw MN) will reach the
area today. For now, kept conditions VFR with showers in the
vicinity as this system moves east. With a more limited
convective scenario, GFS BUFKIT is very slow to saturate the
layer under 045. More activity just past the end of the forecast
period at 06Z may bring lower ceilings/visibilities.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen/T
AVIATION...Skipper
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 3:49 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408150749-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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