MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 6:51 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...
706
FXUS64 KMOB 142351
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Scattered
showers and storms will develop again on Thursday afternoon with
brief reductions in ceilings and visbys. /13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
Rinse and repeat once again. Hot conditions continue as upper
level ridging settles across the deep south. Upper troughing over
the eastern US will slowly lift northeast as northwesterly flow
develops over the area. While most of the area could remain dry, a
subtle shortwave is expected to move through the area across the
northwesterly flow. This will allow for scattered showers and
storms during the afternoon on Thursday. Given the drier air
aloft, some storms could posses gustier winds. The heat will
continue to be the main topic of conversation with minimal cloud
cover during the middle part of the day and strong subsidence from
the upper ridge. High temperatures will once again climb to near
record highs. The only thing keeping more widespread heat issues
is the low moisture quality leading to lower heat indices with
respect to the air temp. Nonetheless, if you thought it was hot
today then tomorrow will be no different. As a result we have
issued yet another heat advisory for the same areas as we had
today.
BB/03
SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
An upper trof centered roughly over the Great Lakes region
gradually evolves into a large upper trof over the eastern states
through the period. An upper ridge axis which extends across much
of the southern CONUS retreats from the forecast region in
response, with the upper ridge meanwhile amplifying substantially
over the central states. A surface ridge oriented generally along
the northern Gulf coast promotes a southerly to southwesterly
flow over the forecast area through the period. Abundant deep
layer moisture will be in place over much of the area each day,
although a bit drier air will be over the easternmost portion on
Friday and near the coast on Saturday. Have gone with chance to
likely pops for the central and western portion of the area on
Friday, except for slight chance pops over the easternmost
portion. For Saturday, have gone with chance to good chance pops
with a typical diurnal convective cycle continuing, although
there is the potential for higher pops should an MCS organize over
the interior southeastern states and move into the area. This
will need to be monitored. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in
the lower to mid 90s. Heat index values on Friday range from the
upper 90s to around 105, then on Saturday heat index values range
from 100 to near 110, and a Heat Advisory may become necessary for
the western portion of the area. Lows Friday night and Saturday
night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the
coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period.
/29
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
An eastern states upper trof amplifies a bit further on Sunday,
and it's possible that another MCS could progress through the area
within the northwesterly flow aloft. Will need to monitor at this
point. Drier deep layer air then flows into the region on Monday,
and have gone with slight chance pops for most of the area on
Monday, then mainly dry conditions prevail for Tuesday. Some
recovery in deep layer moisture is expected on Wednesday, so will
have slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast. A Heat
Advisory will likely become necessary for at least the coastal
portions of the area on Sunday, and it's possible that additional
heat advisories could be needed for the coastal areas each
additional day. /29
MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
A typical diurnal pattern will remain across the marine area with
the sea breeze keeping winds more southerly during the day and
land breeze keeping winds more northerly at night. A more
persistent light southerly flow will become established by late
week into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will remain possible along and south of the coast each day. No
impacts are expected outside of locally higher winds and seas near
thunderstorms. MM/25 BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 77 95 77 93 76 95 75 96 / 20 50 20 60 10 40 30 30
Pensacola 80 92 80 92 78 93 77 96 / 20 50 30 40 10 30 30 30
Destin 81 91 80 91 79 92 78 93 / 20 40 40 30 10 20 30 30
Evergreen 75 95 74 94 72 96 72 95 / 10 30 10 30 10 40 30 30
Waynesboro 75 97 74 95 72 97 71 96 / 20 30 10 50 10 50 30 20
Camden 75 94 74 94 73 94 71 93 / 10 20 10 30 20 50 30 20
Crestview 76 94 74 94 72 96 73 96 / 10 40 20 20 0 30 30 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ052-261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>204.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 6:51 PM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408142351-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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