BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 10:23 AM EDT
882
FXUS61 KBOX 131423
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1023 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and very pleasant weather is on tap for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Another round of scattered showers, and perhaps a
few thunderstorms, is possible Thursday. Mainly dry weather
probably returns for Friday, but a frontal system may bring some
unsettled weather by the latter half of this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 am update...
Clear skies abound this morning with comfortable temperatures in
the 70s. Visible satellite shows a bit of high level smoke
moving south into the area (from wildfires out west) so some
hazy skies may be evident this afternoon. Forecast remains on
track.
Previous Discussion...
Mixed signals from the synoptic pattern. A very large high
pressure remains to our west. However, there is still a broad
mid level trough to contend with today. Given a relative dearth
of moisture in the lower levels, leaning toward a dry forecast
with mostly clear skies. Near normal high temperatures with
comfortable humidity expected.
Winds generally west to northwest, but perhaps not strong
enough to completely prevent local seabreezes along the east
coast of MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Not much change to the synoptic pattern so not much change to
the forecast. Expecting dry weather to continue into Wednesday.
Some signs for a mid level shortwave to rotate south around a
broader mid level low pressure. Still not a lot of moisture
around, but cannot completely dismiss the idea of isolated to
scattered afternoon showers. Will still need more time to better
target the most likely areas. For now, thinking most showers
remain across northern New England, but extend south across
eastern MA and the Worcester Hills.
Near normal temperatures should continue as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday followed by
dry and seasonable conditions on Friday
* Trending toward unsettled weather this weekend as moisture
increases ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
* Continuing to monitor Tropical Storm Ernesto for risk of high
surf and rip currents this weekend. Please see the NHC
Advisories for more information on this system.
Thursday and Friday
Deep northwest flow continues to prevail over southern New
England on Thursday. However, a strong upper-level wind field
associated with a 250 hPa jet will progress over the region on
Thursday afternoon. With sufficient instability and moisture in
place, this forcing should be enough to trigger a few afternoon
showers and thunderstorms across the region. Deep layer shear is
modest around 30 knots, so wouldn't expect any threatening
organized convection, but one or two strong storms can't be
ruled out. CSU machine learning probabilities suggest a 5 to 15
percent chance of severe weather across most of New England for
the Thursday through Thursday night time frame. Other than the
scattered afternoon convection, Thursday should feature another
day with a mix of sun and clouds and seasonable temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s.
South/southwest flow returns on Friday which should support an
uptick in humidity, but the latest suite of model guidance
supports a dry/sunny day on Friday with seasonable temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly flow will support
increasing cloudiness ahead of an approaching upper-level trough
Friday night into Saturday.
Saturday through Monday
Unsettled weather on tap for the weekend with southwesterly
flow supporting an uptick in deep layer moisture. Good agreement
in model guidance for above normal PWATs with cyclonic flow
aloft supporting periods of diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
Details in timing and intensity are vague as they will be
dependent on smaller scale features embedded in the broader
flow. Temperatures remain seasonable during this time period.
We'll also be monitoring the progression of Tropical Storm
Ernesto which may be offshore southern New England late this
weekend or early next week. The storm may bring an increased
risk of high surf and rip currents. See the latest tropical
forecast and updates from The National Hurricane Center at
nhc.noaa.gov.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z TAF Update
Today...High Confidence.
VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 knots although winds should shift to more
of a SW direction late in the day near the I-95 corridor.
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR with perhaps brief/very localized fog developing toward
daybreak in the typically lowest lying locations. Calm/Light NW
winds.
Wednesday...High Confidence.
VFR. Light north winds, with seabreezes likely to develop along
the immediate coasts.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence. Low chance for a sea-breeze after
20Z this afternoon, but confidence not high enough to include in
12Z TAF update.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Friday through Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday...High Confidence.
A ridge of high pressure to our west will result in pleasant
boating weather winds/seas below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through Wednesday. Visibility should be quite good as well.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM
NEAR TERM...Belk/BW
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/RM
MARINE...Belk/RM
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 10:23 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408131423-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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