IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 1:21 AM EDT
046
FXUS63 KIWX 100521
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
121 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather and cooler than normal conditions persist this
weekend.
- Temperatures moderate early next week with highs around 80
and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
- There will be dangerous swimming conditions at Lake Michigan
beaches through late Saturday with life-threatening waves and
currents expected. Those visiting the beaches should plan to
stay out of the water. A Moderate Swim Risk may linger into
Sunday for southwest Lower Michigan beaches.
- Next notable rain chances not until the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
Several weak perturbations will continue to rotate around parent
upper low centered across northern Great Lakes/south central
Ontario. These short waves will become increasingly sheared
as they enter the southern Great Lakes into Saturday but will
help to bring reinforcing cold advection to the region into
Saturday morning. An item of low confidence tonight is extent of
stratocu working into southern Lower Michigan/far northern
Indiana later this evening into the overnight. Secondary cold
advection push could support these lower clouds moving across
the area, and some concern that sky cover grids could be a bit
underdone across portions of the area. Cold advection should
allow for some low level mixing overnight that should keep temps
from bottoming out too far. Sky cover could also play a role
tonight and could keep temps up a bit higher than forecast for
areas that see stratocu move back in.
Saturday will feature the coolest conditions of this forecast period
with highs only reaching into the low to mid 70s. Steep low level
lapse rates again on Saturday should support afternoon gusts into
the 15 to 25 mph range.
Great Lakes/southern Ontario negative upper height anomaly will
finally push into eastern Great Lakes/southern Quebec by Sunday
morning, but upstream omega-blocking pattern across south
central Canada will keep any notable low level warm/moist
advection return displaced well west and south of the local
area. Guidance is starting to come into a little better
agreement in lead Pacific wave resulting in an increase of
mainly mid level moisture late Sunday night into Monday. This
could induce a few light showers or sprinkles from Illinois into
NW Indiana on Monday.
Looking into next week, moderation in temperatures will be slow as
longwave pattern becomes more stable with western CONUS upper
ridging and eastern CONUS upper troughing. This will place local
area in mean inflection zone. Initially better shower/storm chances
will be anchored well south/west of the area for Monday night into
Tuesday. Large scale pattern would support additional NW flow waves
inducing periods of stronger low/mid level warm/moist advective
forcing and have made no change to inherited trend in blended
PoPs with chance PoP mention for showers and storms mid to late
next work week. Not much change in daily temperature expected in
this type of pattern with series of potential waves likely not
allowing thermal ridging to fully build in from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
Subsidence/high pressure and dry air in the lower levels will
remain anchored across the region through the period. Some SCT
4-6 kft cu/stratocu at the base of the subsidence inversion
will likely persist through the period but conditions will
remain VFR. Another day with afternoon wind gusts of 20-25kts is
also expected given moderate gradient and deep mixing.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...AGD
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 1:21 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408100521-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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