ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 3:33 PM EDT
134
FXUS61 KILN 101933
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
333 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Scattered cumulus across the region will dissipate with the loss
of heating. May see some high clouds pass through overnight,
especially in southern counties. But dry airmass with light wind
and little cloud cover will allow lows to fall into the lower to
mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure center over the mid Mississippi Valley at the
beginning of the period will expand eastward during the short
term. Expect a fairly respectable cumulus field to develop with
heating once again and dissipate late in the day. Otherwise,
just a few high clouds moving through the region. With little
change in airmass, expect highs and lows to be near or perhaps
just a bit warmer than persistence.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain in place into mid week. In the
mid levels, a short wave will drop southeast through the region
late Monday into Monday night. Reasonable amount of lift with
this, but it remains unclear whether this can overcome dry low
levels. Chance of measurable rain still seems low, but would not
be surprised if we end up with some sprinkles as this system
passes.
Although the GFS and its ensemble system keep a more amplified
pattern in place for the latter part of the week, the ECWMF and
CMC are flatter, allowing short wave energy to track across the
continental US and eventually into the Ohio Valley. The latter
seems more likely. This would result in the return of showers
and thunderstorms, perhaps as early as Thursday with the chance
continuing into Saturday.
Temperatures will still be a bit below normal to start the
period but then settle into more seasonable readings from
midweek onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered cumulus will dissipate towards 00Z. West northwest
winds around 10 kt will be decreasing around that time as well.
It is not out of the question that some shallow fog could cause
visibility restrictions at KLUK overnight. Beyond that just
expect cumulus to redevelop late in the period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 3:33 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408101933-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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