IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 10:55 AM EDT
038
FXUS63 KIND 091455
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1055 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Sunny and Pleasant today
- Clear and Pleasant tonight
- Generally milder and lower humidity throughout much of the next
week, particularly this weekend.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
Pesky patches of stratocu was moving southeast across central
Indiana this morning, otherwise temperatures were only slowly
creeping back up to the upper 60s and lower 70s with northwest winds
at 5 to 10 knots. A mostly dry column and high pressure building in
from the northwest supports plenty of afternoon sunshine. Afternoon
highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s still look likely as solar
heating intensifies along with mixing.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
Synopsis -
Surface analysis early this morning shows Low pressure over Virginia
and north of Lake Superior. A large area of surface high pressure
was found over the northern plains, with a broad ridge axis nosing
southeast into the middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Cool
N-NW surface flow was found across Central Indiana and dew points
were in the lower 60s. Aloft, a broad area of low pressure was
centered over Lake Superior, however, its influence was wide,
stretching from eastern Montana, across the upper Midwest to eastern
Ontario, but north of Central Indiana. Water Vapor showed a weak
area of subsidence across Central Indiana.
Today -
Ridging aloft over the western CONUS is expected to result in
northwest flow aloft spilling across Central Indiana. The upper low
north of Lake Superior, quite cut off from the main flow aloft will
slowly edge eastward, but ill remain north of Indiana and have no
impact. Models suggest little in the way of upper forcing within the
flow aloft. Meanwhile at the surface, the high pressure system to
the northwest will continue to build southeast across Indiana.
Forecast soundings across the area show a dry column with convective
temps of 100F+. Thus a mostly sunny day will be expected with mainly
just a few high clouds passing within the flow aloft. Within the
lower levels, a moderate pressure gradient may result in some summer
breezes, with gusts near 25 mph. Given the NW flow and weak cold air
advection in play today, highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s will
be expected.
Tonight -
Little overall change is expected in the weather pattern tonight.
The previously mentioned NW flow aloft will continue to be in place
as the ridging across the western CONUS remains in play. The
associated surface high pressure system is expected to build
eastward also, reaching MO with ridging building across Central
Indiana. All of this should result in clear skies along with cooler
temperatures due to ongoing cold air advection amid the NW flow.
Forecast soundings remain dry overnight. Furthermore, NW flow and
subsidence will allow for the arrival of lower dew points into the
middle and lower 50s. This will allow for pleasant lows in the
middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
Mainly dry conditions and at or below normal temperatures
expected for the next week across Indiana. The period will be
characterized by a closed upper low over the Great Lakes this
weekend, along with a relatively low amplitude ridge gradually
shifting eastward with time and providing a slight warming trend
from weekend highs in the 70s. The September-like weather this
weekend is from a broad area of high pressure dropping south from
Canada, which will be the main weather influence through early next
week. Northwesterly flow in the lower levels will keep humidity
values much lower than what they have been over the past month, with
both dew points and nightly lows dropping into the 50s.
Early next week, troughing over the Great Lakes region begins to
shift east, placing the region in an upper level northwest flow
pattern. At the surface, lower pressure develops in the Plains while
the high pressure over Indiana shifts just to the north and east.
Weak warm air advection and low level ridging nudging in from the
southwest should lead to a slight warming trend back to the 80s for
next week. The upper level northwest flow pattern typically results
in complexes of storms developing in the Upper Midwest and then
dropping southeastward into the state. However, with such a dry
airmass in place, it may be hard for any storm systems to sustain
themselves as they move toward the state. With the orientation of
the synoptic systems, moisture advection back into the region looks
relatively weak through much of the long term period. Have trended
the forecast drier for Monday, with low PoPs entering the forecast
Wednesday and Thursday when a stronger system with better forcing
and moisture approach from the west. Even then, low PoPs on
Wednesday may be overdone, but will keep them in for now as track
and timing of that system could easily shift with future model runs.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
Impacts:
- Wind gusts to around 20 knots possible through 01z Saturday
Discussion:
A tightening low pressure gradient and mixing will lead to gusts to
20 knots this afternoon. Sustained wind speeds will be around 9 to
13 knots from the northwest this afternoon and become light this
evening and less than 10 knots Saturday. Should only see some
passing cirrus and scattered diurnal cu this afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...MK
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 10:55 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408091455-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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