ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 7:04 PM EDT
103
FXUS61 KILN 082304
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
704 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will pivot into the area offering a chance for
showers and thunderstorms today. A cold front will move east
across the area on Friday offering a lingering threat for
precipitation. High pressure returns for the weekend into early
next week providing cooler and drier conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Starting to observe the first signs of scattered showers along
an axis of moisture convergence aligned roughly along the I-71
corridor but east of Cincinnati. To the west, much drier mid-
level air is present, likely keeping future development along
and east of the aforementioned corridor.
Mid-level lapse rates are quite poor across this zone of
development, likely limiting the potential for robust updrafts,
however, some thunder is still anticipated as updrafts fester in
the belt of instability (MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg). Can't rule out a
few thunderstorm wind gusts of 30-40 mph during the late
afternoon and early evening as low- level lapse rates are
steepest in the Scioto River Valley. Weak deep layer shear
supports collapsing updrafts and outflow boundary collisions so
development and movement might appear quite sporadic. A very
subtle east to west motion in the showers/storms may be noticed
with activity moving into eastern Ohio, but mean steering flow
becomes westerly near the I-71 corridor, stalling any activity
that approaches the corridor. Due to the potential for slow
moving or stalled storms, some locally heavy rain can't be ruled
out with 1-2" possible via the SPC HREF 24-hr local-probability
matched mean.
A shortwave trough digging into the lower Great Lakes supports
broad-scale lift enough to help linger activity into the evening
hours. Thunderstorm activity would decrease, but showers may
linger beyond 2 am.
Low temperatures are warmest in the southeast (low 70s), but
mostly clear skies may allow temperatures to cool into the lower
60s across eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Friday morning, the shortwave trough will have accelerated
the remnants of Debby into Pennsylvania, keeping the moisture
associated with the system well east of the area. The low
pressure passing to the east will help increase the pressure
gradient over the area, so northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph
is expected along with dry conditions. Even with the
northwesterly flow, negative theta-e advection struggles to
penetrate the local area until later in the evening. This will
allow for afternoon temperatures to still warm into the mid 80s
along and southeast of I-71.
A cooler and drier air mass associated with surface high
pressure nosing in from the west finally supplies a change in
the pattern for all locations. Low temperatures in the 50s by
Saturday morning will feel quite different from the recent
pattern. These temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal
for this time of the year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad, low amplitude long wave trough will be persistent
through the period although it will slowly translate eastward
towards the middle of next week. At the surface, high pressure
will prevail. There is a low potential of getting some showers
with any impulses moving through the trough, particularly late
in the period, but overall a dry pattern. Below normal
temperatures through the weekend into early next week will rise
to closer to normal by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period outside of
isolated shower activity near the Columbus sites early this evening.
There could also be a very brief period of MVFR ceilings the
Columbus sites around 1100z. Otherwise, some middle and upper level
clouds persist overnight before shifting east on Friday morning.
Some VFR diurnal cumulus is forecast on Friday.
Northerly winds from 5-10 knots continue overnight. Winds back to
the northwest after 1200z Friday and increase to 10-15 knots.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Campbell
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 7:04 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408082304-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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