JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 12:34 PM EDT
471
FXUS63 KJKL 091634
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1234 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below average temperatures and dry weather will arrive as we
move into the weekend, and carry into early next week.
- A small potential for showers and thunderstorms returns around
the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
Measurable precip looks like its done, with just a few sprinkles
left to exit the eastern tip of the state. The forecast continues
in good shape, with no modifications needed.
UPDATE Issued at 936 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
Clouds are more extensive this morning than was forecast,
especially over southeast KY, and sky cover has been increased
there in the very near term portion of the forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 741 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
The forecast is largely on track, so no notable changes were
needed with the morning update. The latest observations were used
as the initialization for the update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
An upper level trough moving across the Upper Midwest will settle
over southern Ontario just north of the Great Lakes region later
today into Saturday. This feature will pick up the remnants of Debby
and move away from the area later today through the remainder of the
short term period, but will usher in surface high pressure tonight
and Saturday.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby moving north up the spine of
the Central Appalachians will allow for low-level northwesterly
winds to develop along with weak cold advection. Low stratus will
gradually develop toward daybreak as residual moisture banks
against the higher terrain toward the Virginia border. As surface
heating increases, this stratus layer will gradually lift and
become cumulus clouds producing isolated to scattered shower
activity by early to mid afternoon, mainly along the Virginia
border and points east, with drier air moving in late in the
afternoon. Highs today will reach the mid-80s for most locations
with mostly sunny conditions in the afternoon outside of the
cumulus development and potential shower activity along the
Virginia border.
High pressure continues to move into the area tonight behind a cold
front crossing the area. The weak cold advection will likely limit
fog development more into the deeper river valleys Saturday morning,
with sunny skies Saturday outside of some thin cirrus clouds in the
afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the mid-50s to the lower
60s, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
The forecast period will be highlighted with below seasonal
temperatures before climbing back into seasonal norms. Also, periods
of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
toward the middle of next week.
The period starts on the backside of an exiting cold front with
cooler west to northwesterly flow. As CAA behind the departing front
builds into the region, the coolest temperatures of the season will
arrive for Saturday night and persist through the remainder of the
weekend. Highs for Sunday are forecast to be in the upper-70s to low-
80s with overnight lows on Saturday night and Sunday night ranging
from the low-50s in the valleys to low-60s on the ridgetops.
Temperatures begin increase to more seasonal norms for Monday as low-
level flow turns to the west-southwest and weak WAA builds into the
region. Models try to bring a shortwave perturbation through the
area Monday afternoon into the overnight. However, confidence is
really lacking as deterministic and ensemble spreads really disagree
with this possible shortwave. Since a great model spread exists,
opted to stick the NBM solution and keep the area mostly dry for
Monday minus the far eastern fringes of Pike County to account for a
weak perturbation moving up from the southeast.
Models come back into better agreement for the middle of next week
as a shortwave develops over the Great Lakes and pivots into the Mid-
Atlantic. While this occurs, a surface feature will follow and cross
through the CWA. This will bring the best chances for rain through
the period but still rather small at 20-40% through the end of the
period but this will mark a return to hot and humid temperatures
with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024
Residual moisture and increasing northwesterly upslope flow is
allowing for low stratus development and MVFR or possibly brief IFR
conditions this morning, which will linger longest at KSJS. The
low stratus will gradually diminish or rise into scattered cumulus
from west to east through the morning into the midday period,
with VFR conditions returning areawide under clearing skies
thereafter. Winds average from the northwest gradually trending
to a more west- northwesterly direction through the period,
averaging 10 kts or less.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 12:34 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408091634-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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