CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 6:54 PM EDT
339
FXUS61 KCLE 092254
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
654 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area tonight. Upper level
troughing will sink southward over the region this weekend.
High pressure returns early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Much quieter and drier weather in store for the weekend as two
features, Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby and a cold front extending
from a surface low over Ontario, exit the region. Large scale
subsidence behind the cold front and along a ridge of high pressure
will promote dry weather for much of the region through the near
term period. Hi-resolution guidance continues to show lake
enhanced rain showers/thunderstorms along the lakeshore from
Cleveland and points east Saturday and Saturday evening as the
base of an upper low dips south into the Lower Great Lakes
region.
Mainly clear skies will allow for overnight lows in the mid/upper
50s tonight and Saturday night lows to drop into the low/mid 50s.
Cooler and less humid for Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid
70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes Region on Sunday with
below normal temperatures and generally partly cloudy conditions. A
few light lake effect rain showers are possible near the lakeshore
from Cleveland to Erie, becoming focused more in the east towards
evening. The trough departs to the east on Monday with high pressure
expanding overhead. Drier air arrives with only scattered cumulus
expected on Monday. Temperatures recover a couple degrees on Monday
but overnight lows remain on the cool side, generally near 60 along
the lakeshore with values in the 50s inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast will feature a northwest flow aloft with
several shortwaves passing overhead. While surface high pressure is
over the region at the start of the period, most models show the
first decent wave passing Monday night into Tuesday. Initially it
looks too dry to include a pop but will need to monitor if moisture
return is sufficient enough to kick off scattered showers by
Tuesday. In general it looks like high pressure over the Great
Lakes will try to keep the focus for precipitation south of the
area for much of the week but will depend on strength and timing
of systems moving through the northwest flow. Temperatures look
to be near normal for much of the long term forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Primarily VFR across terminals as a ridge of high pressure
ushers in much drier air with clear skies tonight. Isolated lake
effect rain showers will be possible Saturday morning through
late Saturday afternoon closer to the lakeshore in Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Winds turn westerly tonight while decreasing below 10 knots.
Westerly winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-22 knots will
return Saturday afternoon.
Outlook....Non-VFR possible with periodic and isolated to
scattered lake enhanced showers/thunderstorms Saturday through
Tuesday. The showers will remain confined to Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect on Lake Erie for much of the
weekend as a trough and cooler airmass settles over the region.
Advisories west of the Lake Erie Islands are only in effect through
4 AM with areas west of the Islands in effect through late Saturday
night and continuing through the day on Sunday east of Avon. Beach
Hazard statements for a high swim risk are also in effect for
similar times. Northwesterly winds will become more westerly on
Saturday with waves of 4 to 7 feet for the east half of the lake. In
addition, waterspouts will be possible as the cooler air arrives,
with higher chances on Saturday and Sunday mornings.
The trough finally departs on Monday with high pressure building in
from the west. Northwest winds decrease to 5 to 15 knots on Monday
with light winds and waves expected through mid-week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for OHZ009-
010.
Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for OHZ011-012-
089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Saunders
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...KEC
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 6:54 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408092254-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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