IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 1:27 PM EDT
933
FXUS63 KIWX 061727
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
127 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The first round of storms arrive near and north of the Michigan
border early today.
- Additional storms with torrential and strong gusty winds should
develop late this afternoon over northern Indiana and northwest
Ohio.
- Cooler, dry and less humid Wednesday through Monday with highs
75 to around 80.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
Convection is ongoing this morning across Lower Michigan into
extreme northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio. This convection
appears to be aided by a mesoscale convective vortex across
southern Lower Michigan. A corridor of favorable wind/shear
instability is aligned in vicinity of low level front from
southern Lower Michigan into northwest Ohio. Have had a few
instances of mesocyclones back across Lower Michigan, with some
persistent signs of mid level rotation with the isolated cell
exiting Williams County. Some wind and tornado threat will
continue across northwest Ohio for next hour or two.
Looking ahead to this afternoon, water vapor imagery does
suggest a decent upstream short wave across the western Great
Lakes that will drift across the eastern Great Lakes into this
afternoon. Higher res guidance is in reasonable agreement on
additional storms developing along slowly southward sagging
boundary this afternoon. Based on timing of upstream lift, still
feel that areas east of I-69 should have the greatest risk of
isolated severe storms this afternoon. Main threat appears to be
damaging wind gusts, but cannot rule out some tornado threat
especially in vicinity and immediately north of the boundary
where hodographs may be a bit more elongated. After near term
threat in NW Ohio, greatest severe threat this afternoon appears
to be in the 18Z-23Z timeframe.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
The first of two rounds of storms will arrive early today and mainly
impact areas near and north of the Michigan border. The storms were
associated with an upper level disturbance that topped the upstream
ridge this weekend and were moving southeast across the Upper
Midwest and Midwest. At this time, it appears heavy rain and strong
gusty winds will prevail; however, overall believe these storms
should remain below severe levels. There should be at least somewhat
of a break in convection before more storms develop south of the
front in the very unstable airmass by mid afternoon. The latest HRRR
favors storm development in the 19Z to 01Z window (3pm to 9pm EDT).
These storms are likely to have torrential rainfall as precipitable
water values hover near 2.25 inches. Strong gusty winds may
accompany the storms, but the latest high res/CAMs seem to favor
storms remaining below severe levels. Otherwise, cooler and
drier conditions will prevail after the rain ends tonight all
of the way into early next week. Highs through the period will
be in the 70s to around 80.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
Cooler, more stable air continues to sink southward. MVFR CIGs
appear to sink into SBN just before this TAF period. There may a
chance for IFR to move in for an hour or two around 00z or so, but
it appears shortlived enough and with weak enough intensity to keep
at low end MVFR for now. FWA has a better chance to dip into IFR
also around that 00z time period until around 10z. MVFR CIGs likely
linger into the morning at FWA.
Winds become more northeasterly by this evening and will try to stay
at or above 10 kts until late tonight/early Wed morning. Gusts to
between 20 and 25 kts will be possible this afternoon as well.
The quick dip below 10 kts Wed morning will become gusty by
midday and early afternoon again Wed.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-
277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Roller
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 1:27 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408061727-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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